Football · Germany DFB Pokal · 23/08, 18:00
Prediction: Phonix Lubeck vs Paderborn
Team pages: Phonix Lubeck
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.8Total
Phonix Lubeck0.9
Paderborn2.9
1X2
Phonix Lubeck
Draw
Paderborn
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Phonix Lubeck
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Paderborn
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Phonix Lubeck 1547 · Paderborn 1554
| Phonix Lubeck | Draw | Paderborn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 14% | 77% |
| Market | 7% | 11% | 82% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.8 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Phonix Lubeck | Paderborn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.2 | 3.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0 / 1 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Phonix Lubeck
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Vfb Lubeck Germany Regionalliga North |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/08 | Bremer SV Germany Regionalliga North |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 09/08 | SSV Jeddeloh Germany Regionalliga North |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/07 | SV Drochtersen-Assel Germany Regionalliga North |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 07/07 | Hannover 96 Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/07 | BFC Dynamo Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 16/05 | FSV Schoningen Germany Regionalliga North |
1-2 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Altona 93 Germany Regionalliga North |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Hamburg SV II Germany Regionalliga North |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | SSV Jeddeloh Germany Regionalliga North |
0-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
Paderborn
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | VfL Osnabruck Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | Magdeburg Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/07 | Fagiano Okayama World Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Hannover 96 Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | SC Blau-Weiss Ostenland Club Friendly List |
7-0 | 18-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/05 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 19 | 8 | D |
| 21/05 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Elversberg Germany Bundesliga II |
0-4 | 1-5 | 5 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Phonix Lubeck vs Paderborn?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Paderborn win (80%). Probabilities: Phonix Lubeck 8%, draw 12%, Paderborn 80%.
How many goals are expected in Phonix Lubeck vs Paderborn?
The model expects 3.8 goals (Phonix Lubeck 0.9 · Paderborn 2.9), with a 55% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Phonix Lubeck vs Paderborn?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.