Football · Germany DFB Pokal · 23/08, 18:00
Prediction: Rot-Weiss Essen vs St Pauli
Team pages: Rot-Weiss Essen · St Pauli
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Rot-Weiss Essen1.49
St Pauli1.86
1X2
Rot-Weiss Essen
Draw
St Pauli
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Rot-Weiss Essen
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
St Pauli
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rot-Weiss Essen 1485 · St Pauli 1518
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Draw | St Pauli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 24% | 45% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rot-Weiss Essen | St Pauli | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.8 | 2.3 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 2.2 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 1.6 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rot-Weiss Essen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Saarbrucken Germany 3. Liga |
2-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Bayer Leverkusen Elite Club Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Borussia M'gladbach Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 17/07 | SV Ried Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Schwarz-Weiß Essen Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 26/05 | Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II Play-Offs |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | SSV Ulm 1846 Germany 3. Liga |
2-2 | 3-2 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Verl Germany 3. Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
St Pauli
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 09/08 | Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | Deportivo La Coruna Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 24/07 | Bournemouth Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | HNK Gorica Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Babelsberg 03 Europe Friendlies |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Kickers Emden Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/06 | Altona 93 Europe Friendlies |
3-2 | 6-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Wolfsburg Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | RB Leipzig Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rot-Weiss Essen vs St Pauli?
According to our model, the most likely result is an St Pauli win (45%). Probabilities: Rot-Weiss Essen 30%, draw 25%, St Pauli 45%.
How many goals are expected in Rot-Weiss Essen vs St Pauli?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Rot-Weiss Essen 1.49 · St Pauli 1.86), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Rot-Weiss Essen vs St Pauli?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.