Football · Germany DFB Pokal · 23/08, 15:30
Prediction: VfB 1921 Krieschow vs Mainz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.88Total
VfB 1921 Krieschow1.44
Mainz3.44
1X2
VfB 1921 Krieschow
Draw
Mainz
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
VfB 1921 Krieschow
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Mainz
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · VfB 1921 Krieschow 1507 · Mainz 1605
| VfB 1921 Krieschow | Draw | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 12% | 14% | 75% |
| Market | 1% | 2% | 97% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.88 goals · Bet365 line 7.25 · -2.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 85%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mainz (rating 1507 vs 1605).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| VfB 1921 Krieschow | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 4.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 2.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | – / – | 2 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | – / – | 0.8 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
VfB 1921 Krieschow
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | ZFC Meuselwitz Germany Oberliga NOFV Sud |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 09/08 | SG Union Sandersdorf Germany Oberliga NOFV Sud |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | SG Union Klosterfelde Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | 1. FC Lok Stendal Germany Oberliga NOFV Sud |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Bischofswerdaer FV Germany Oberliga NOFV Sud |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | Grimma Germany Oberliga NOFV Sud |
2-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | RSV Eintracht Germany Oberliga NOFV Sud |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | SG Union Sandersdorf Germany Oberliga NOFV Sud |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | VfB Auerbach Germany Oberliga NOFV Sud |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Vfb Germania Halberstadt Germany Oberliga NOFV Sud |
0-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
Mainz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Bournemouth Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Paris FC Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 01/08 | Udinese Elite Club Friendlies |
1-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 31/07 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai World Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Holstein Kiel Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Kaiserslautern Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Sportfreunde Eisbachtal Club Friendly List |
5-0 | 10-0 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | TSG Pfeddersheim Club Friendly List |
5-0 | 11-0 | 16 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga I |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Union Berlin Germany Bundesliga I |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in VfB 1921 Krieschow vs Mainz?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mainz win (87%). Probabilities: VfB 1921 Krieschow 6%, draw 7%, Mainz 87%.
How many goals are expected in VfB 1921 Krieschow vs Mainz?
The model expects 4.88 goals (VfB 1921 Krieschow 1.44 · Mainz 3.44), with a 67% chance of under 7.25 goals.
Will both teams score in VfB 1921 Krieschow vs Mainz?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.