Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 26/07, 15:00
Prediction: Linense vs Marilia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.79Total
Linense0.92
Marilia0.86
1X2
Linense
Draw
Marilia
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Linense
0-6-4 (W-D-L)
Marilia
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Linense
1–1
Marilia
(2 last)
- Linense0-1Marilia
- Marilia0-1Linense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Linense 1452 · Marilia 1520
| Linense | Draw | Marilia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 36% | 31% |
| Market | 36% | 31% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.79 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marilia (rating 1452 vs 1520).
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Linense | Marilia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.3 | 2.4 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0 | 5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Linense 1–0–1 Marilia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/21 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 | Linense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Marilia |
| 25/01/20 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 | Marilia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Linense |
Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marilia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Bandeirante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | Linense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Gremio Prudente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Linense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Bandeirante Brazil Paulista Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 07/03 | Ferroviaria SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 01/03 | Santo Andre SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 25/02 | Sao Bento Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 22/02 | Gremio Prudente Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 18/02 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 14/02 | Inter de Limeira Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/02 | CA Juventus Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 08/02 | Osasco Sporting Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 31/01 | Sertaozinho FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
Marilia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Gremio Prudente Brazil Paulista Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 23/04 | Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | XV de Jau Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 12/04 | XV de Jau Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 05/04 | EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 28/03 | EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/03 | AA Francana Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/03 | XV de Jau Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 11/03 | Uniao Suzano Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Linense vs Marilia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Linense win (35%). Probabilities: Linense 35%, draw 33%, Marilia 32%.
How many goals are expected in Linense vs Marilia?
The model expects 1.79 goals (Linense 0.92 · Marilia 0.86), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Linense vs Marilia?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.