Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 01/08, 20:00

Prediction: Sao Caetano vs EC Sao Bernardo

Team pages: Sao Caetano · EC Sao Bernardo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Sao Caetano1.22

EC Sao Bernardo1.21

1X2

35% 30% 35%

Sao Caetano Draw EC Sao Bernardo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Caetano 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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EC Sao Bernardo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sao Caetano 3–1–2 EC Sao Bernardo (6 last)

Sao Caetano1-1EC Sao Bernardo
EC Sao Bernardo1-2Sao Caetano
EC Sao Bernardo1-0Sao Caetano
Sao Caetano2-0EC Sao Bernardo
EC Sao Bernardo1-0Sao Caetano
EC Sao Bernardo2-4Sao Caetano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Caetano 1484 · EC Sao Bernardo 1503

	Sao Caetano	Draw	EC Sao Bernardo
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sao Caetano: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Caetano	EC Sao Bernardo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.00

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
23:33	2.55	3.00	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Caetano 3–1–2 EC Sao Bernardo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/24 Brazil Paulista Cup	Sao Caetano	1-1 HT 1-1	EC Sao Bernardo
15/06/24 Brazil Paulista Cup	EC Sao Bernardo	1-2 HT 1-1	Sao Caetano
28/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	EC Sao Bernardo	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Caetano
04/08/23 Brazil Paulista Cup	Sao Caetano	2-0 HT 1-0	EC Sao Bernardo
02/07/23 Brazil Paulista Cup	EC Sao Bernardo	1-0 HT 0-0	Sao Caetano
13/08/22 Brazil Paulista Cup	EC Sao Bernardo	2-4 HT 0-3	Sao Caetano

Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	São José dos Campos FC	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
2	EC Sao Bernardo	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
3	Sao Caetano	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
4	Santo Andre SP	2	0	1	1	1	3	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sao Caetano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Santo Andre SP Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
20/07	Sao Jose SP Brazil Paulista Cup	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
02/05	CA Penapolense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/04	CA Penapolense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-2	1-2	5	7	L
18/04	Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/04	Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
04/04	Vocem Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
28/03	GD Saocarlense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-0	1-4	7	10	L
25/03	Colorado Caieiras FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-0	4-0	5	4	W
21/03	EC Barretos Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

EC Sao Bernardo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	São José dos Campos FC Brazil Paulista Cup	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
19/07	Santo Andre SP Brazil Paulista Cup	1-1	3-1	1	2	W
05/04	Marilia Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
28/03	Marilia Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
21/03	Uniao Sao Joao Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	1-1	2-2	10	8	D
15/03	Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-1	0-3	9	3	L
12/03	Bandeirante Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
08/03	Itapirense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
04/03	Rio Branco SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	2-0	4-0	3	6	W
01/03	Rio Claro Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	0-1	7	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Caetano vs EC Sao Bernardo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Caetano win (35%). Probabilities: Sao Caetano 35%, draw 30%, EC Sao Bernardo 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Caetano vs EC Sao Bernardo?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Sao Caetano 1.22 · EC Sao Bernardo 1.21), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Caetano vs EC Sao Bernardo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.