Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 02/08, 00:00

Prediction: Bandeirante vs Marilia

Team pages: Bandeirante · Marilia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Bandeirante0.86

Marilia1.2

1X2

26% 30% 44%

Bandeirante Draw Marilia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bandeirante 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWDLWDL

Marilia 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDDLWL

Head-to-head

Bandeirante 3–1–2 Marilia (6 last)

Marilia4-0Bandeirante
Bandeirante2-1Marilia
Marilia1-1Bandeirante
Bandeirante2-0Marilia
Marilia2-1Bandeirante
Bandeirante3-1Marilia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bandeirante 1490 · Marilia 1499

	Bandeirante	Draw	Marilia
Our model	25%	32%	43%
Market	27%	28%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Bandeirante: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bandeirante	Marilia
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.20

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:33 +5’	3.30	3.20	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bandeirante 3–1–2 Marilia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	Marilia	4-0 HT 3-0	Bandeirante
19/01/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	Bandeirante	2-1 HT 0-0	Marilia
08/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	Marilia	1-1 HT 1-0	Bandeirante
21/01/23 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	Bandeirante	2-0 HT 1-0	Marilia
16/03/22 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	Marilia	2-1 HT 1-1	Bandeirante
05/05/21 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	Bandeirante	3-1 HT 3-1	Marilia

Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Linense	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
2	Gremio Prudente	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
3	Marilia	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
4	Bandeirante	2	0	1	1	0	1	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bandeirante	Marilia
Gremio Prudente	0-1 L	1-0 W
Linense	0-0 D	1-3 L
EC Sao Bernardo	2-2 D	2-0 W
AA Francana	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Marilia (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bandeirante

WDLDWDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Gremio Prudente Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
19/07	Linense Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
21/03	Rio Branco SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
15/03	Catanduva FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
12/03	EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	2-2	2	3	D
08/03	Rio Claro Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	2-2	3-2	3	6	W
05/03	Paulista FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
28/02	Rio Preto Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
25/02	Uniao Suzano Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
21/02	AA Francana Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Marilia

LWLWDDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Linense Brazil Paulista Cup	1-1	1-3	11	5	L
18/07	Gremio Prudente Brazil Paulista Cup	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
26/04	Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
23/04	Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	2-1	2-2	5	4	D
19/04	XV de Jau Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
12/04	XV de Jau Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
05/04	EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
28/03	EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
21/03	AA Francana Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
15/03	XV de Jau Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	0-1	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bandeirante vs Marilia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Marilia win (44%). Probabilities: Bandeirante 26%, draw 30%, Marilia 44%.

How many goals are expected in Bandeirante vs Marilia?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Bandeirante 0.86 · Marilia 1.2), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Bandeirante vs Marilia?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.