Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 26/07, 15:00
Prediction: Santo Andre SP vs Sao Caetano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
Santo Andre SP1.47
Sao Caetano0.82
1X2
Santo Andre SP
Draw
Sao Caetano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Santo Andre SP
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Sao Caetano
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Santo Andre SP
1–2–3
Sao Caetano
(6 last)
- Sao Caetano2-0Santo Andre SP
- Santo Andre SP0-2Sao Caetano
- Sao Caetano1-2Santo Andre SP
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santo Andre SP 1461 · Sao Caetano 1505
| Santo Andre SP | Draw | Sao Caetano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market | 52% | 27% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Caetano (rating 1461 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Sao Caetano: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Santo Andre SP | Sao Caetano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6 | 2.2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Santo Andre SP 1–2–3 Sao Caetano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | Sao Caetano | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Santo Andre SP |
| 05/07/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | Santo Andre SP | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Sao Caetano |
| 25/08/23 Brazil Paulista Cup | Sao Caetano | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Santo Andre SP |
| 19/07/23 Brazil Paulista Cup | Santo Andre SP | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sao Caetano |
| 08/03/21 Brazil Campeonato Paulista | Santo Andre SP | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sao Caetano |
| 16/10/19 Brazil Paulista Cup | Santo Andre SP | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Sao Caetano |
Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 4
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EC Sao Bernardo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | São José dos Campos FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Sao Caetano | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 4 | Santo Andre SP | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Santo Andre SP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Paulista Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 07/03 | Sao Bento Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
3-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 01/03 | Linense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/02 | Sertaozinho FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 22/02 | São José dos Campos FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 19/02 | EC Taubate Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 14/02 | Gremio Prudente Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 12/02 | Osasco Sporting Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 07/02 | Ituano Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 01/02 | EC Agua Santa Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
Sao Caetano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Sao Jose SP Brazil Paulista Cup |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | CA Penapolense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | CA Penapolense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Vocem Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | GD Saocarlense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
1-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 10 | L |
| 25/03 | Colorado Caieiras FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | EC Barretos Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/03 | Tanabi Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Santo Andre SP vs Sao Caetano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Santo Andre SP win (52%). Probabilities: Santo Andre SP 52%, draw 28%, Sao Caetano 20%.
How many goals are expected in Santo Andre SP vs Sao Caetano?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Santo Andre SP 1.47 · Sao Caetano 0.82), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Santo Andre SP vs Sao Caetano?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.