Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 17/08, 20:00

Prediction: Sao Caetano vs Santo Andre SP

Team pages: Sao Caetano · Santo Andre SP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Sao Caetano1.09

Santo Andre SP1.09

1X2

35% 30% 35%

Sao Caetano Draw Santo Andre SP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Caetano 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Santo Andre SP 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sao Caetano 2–3–1 Santo Andre SP (6 last)

Santo Andre SP0-0Sao Caetano
Sao Caetano2-0Santo Andre SP
Santo Andre SP0-2Sao Caetano
Sao Caetano1-2Santo Andre SP
Santo Andre SP1-1Sao Caetano
Santo Andre SP0-0Sao Caetano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Caetano 1434 · Santo Andre SP 1478

	Sao Caetano	Draw	Santo Andre SP
Our model	34%	32%	34%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santo Andre SP (rating 1434 vs 1478).
H2H favours Sao Caetano: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Caetano	Santo Andre SP
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.8	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.5	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:38 +3’	2.50	3.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Caetano 2–3–1 Santo Andre SP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 Brazil Paulista Cup	Santo Andre SP	0-0 HT 0-0	Sao Caetano
09/08/25 Brazil Paulista Cup	Sao Caetano	2-0 HT 1-0	Santo Andre SP
05/07/25 Brazil Paulista Cup	Santo Andre SP	0-2 HT 0-1	Sao Caetano
25/08/23 Brazil Paulista Cup	Sao Caetano	1-2 HT 0-2	Santo Andre SP
19/07/23 Brazil Paulista Cup	Santo Andre SP	1-1 HT 0-0	Sao Caetano
08/03/21 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Santo Andre SP	0-0 HT 0-0	Sao Caetano

Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	São José dos Campos FC	5	4	0	1	9	5	12
2	EC Sao Bernardo	5	3	0	2	12	7	9
3	Santo Andre SP	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
4	Sao Caetano	4	0	1	3	2	8	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Caetano	Santo Andre SP
EC Sao Bernardo	0-2 L	1-3 L
Sao Jose SP	1-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sao Caetano (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sao Caetano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Paulista Cup	0-1	0-2	0	2	L
01/08	EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Paulista Cup	0-2	1-4	1	6	L
26/07	Santo Andre SP Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
20/07	Sao Jose SP Brazil Paulista Cup	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
02/05	CA Penapolense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/04	CA Penapolense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-2	1-2	5	7	L
18/04	Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/04	Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
04/04	Vocem Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
28/03	GD Saocarlense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	1-0	1-4	7	10	L

Santo Andre SP

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Sao Jose SP Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
02/08	Sao Jose SP Brazil Paulista Cup	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
26/07	Sao Caetano Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
19/07	EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Paulista Cup	1-1	1-3	6	2	L
07/03	Sao Bento Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	3-1	4-2	2	3	W
01/03	Linense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
25/02	Sertaozinho FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	0-2	1-2	8	4	L
22/02	São José dos Campos FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	0-2	0-3	10	3	L
19/02	EC Taubate Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
14/02	Gremio Prudente Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	0-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Caetano vs Santo Andre SP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Caetano win (35%). Probabilities: Sao Caetano 35%, draw 30%, Santo Andre SP 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Caetano vs Santo Andre SP?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Sao Caetano 1.09 · Santo Andre SP 1.09), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Caetano vs Santo Andre SP?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.