Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 22/08, 20:00

Prediction: Santo Andre SP vs EC Sao Bernardo

Team pages: Santo Andre SP · EC Sao Bernardo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Santo Andre SP1.37

EC Sao Bernardo1.22

1X2

39% 28% 33%

Santo Andre SP Draw EC Sao Bernardo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Santo Andre SP 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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EC Sao Bernardo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Santo Andre SP 2–3 EC Sao Bernardo (5 last)

EC Sao Bernardo3-1Santo Andre SP
EC Sao Bernardo1-2Santo Andre SP
Santo Andre SP0-1EC Sao Bernardo
Santo Andre SP0-3EC Sao Bernardo
EC Sao Bernardo0-1Santo Andre SP

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santo Andre SP 1485 · EC Sao Bernardo 1504

	Santo Andre SP	Draw	EC Sao Bernardo
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours EC Sao Bernardo: 3-0-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santo Andre SP	EC Sao Bernardo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	3.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 16:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.51
X	3.30 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75
2	2.70 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.91 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 18% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:34 +12’	2.25	3.30	2.70
03:07 +10’	2.70▲	3.30	2.25▼
10:10 +3’	2.40▼	3.25▼	2.50▲
16:43 +5’	2.40	2.75▼	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:09 +5’	2.48	2.62	2.94
10:57 +21’	2.51▲	2.62	2.91▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santo Andre SP 2–0–3 EC Sao Bernardo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 Brazil Paulista Cup	EC Sao Bernardo	3-1 HT 1-1	Santo Andre SP
13/08/23 Brazil Paulista Cup	EC Sao Bernardo	1-2 HT 1-1	Santo Andre SP
05/07/23 Brazil Paulista Cup	Santo Andre SP	0-1 HT 0-0	EC Sao Bernardo
04/08/19 Brazil Paulista Cup	Santo Andre SP	0-3 HT 0-1	EC Sao Bernardo
29/06/19 Brazil Paulista Cup	EC Sao Bernardo	0-1 HT 0-1	Santo Andre SP

Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	São José dos Campos FC	5	4	0	1	9	5	12
2	EC Sao Bernardo	5	3	0	2	12	7	9
3	Santo Andre SP	5	2	1	2	3	5	7
4	Sao Caetano	5	0	1	4	2	9	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santo Andre SP	EC Sao Bernardo
Sao Caetano	1-0 W	2-0 W
São José dos Campos FC	0-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: EC Sao Bernardo (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Santo Andre SP

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Sao Caetano Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	1-0	12	5	W
09/08	Sao Jose SP Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
02/08	Sao Jose SP Brazil Paulista Cup	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
26/07	Sao Caetano Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
19/07	EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Paulista Cup	1-1	1-3	6	2	L
07/03	Sao Bento Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	3-1	4-2	2	3	W
01/03	Linense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	1-0	1-1	8	4	D
25/02	Sertaozinho FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	0-2	1-2	8	4	L
22/02	São José dos Campos FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	0-2	0-3	10	3	L
19/02	EC Taubate Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	1-1	1-1	7	4	D

EC Sao Bernardo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	São José dos Campos FC Brazil Paulista Cup	1-3	2-3	6	9	L
09/08	Sao Caetano Brazil Paulista Cup	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
01/08	Sao Caetano Brazil Paulista Cup	2-0	4-1	2	6	W
26/07	São José dos Campos FC Brazil Paulista Cup	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
19/07	Santo Andre SP Brazil Paulista Cup	1-1	3-1	1	2	W
05/04	Marilia Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
28/03	Marilia Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
21/03	Uniao Sao Joao Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	1-1	2-2	10	8	D
15/03	Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-1	0-3	9	3	L
12/03	Bandeirante Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3	0-0	2-2	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santo Andre SP vs EC Sao Bernardo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santo Andre SP win (39%). Probabilities: Santo Andre SP 39%, draw 28%, EC Sao Bernardo 33%.

How many goals are expected in Santo Andre SP vs EC Sao Bernardo?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Santo Andre SP 1.37 · EC Sao Bernardo 1.22), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Santo Andre SP vs EC Sao Bernardo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.