Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 22/08, 20:00

Prediction: Noroeste vs Comercial FC

Team pages: Noroeste · Comercial FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Noroeste1.54

Comercial FC0.8

1X2

55% 26% 19%

Noroeste Draw Comercial FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Noroeste 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Comercial FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Noroeste 4–1–1 Comercial FC (6 last)

Comercial FC2-0Noroeste
Noroeste1-1Comercial FC
Noroeste3-0Comercial FC
Comercial FC1-3Noroeste
Comercial FC0-2Noroeste
Noroeste1-0Comercial FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Noroeste 1490 · Comercial FC 1524

	Noroeste	Draw	Comercial FC
Our model	54%	28%	18%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Noroeste: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Noroeste	Comercial FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.96 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:21 +25’	1.61	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:09 +5’	1.63	3.29	4.77
16:45 +3’	1.60▼	3.32▲	4.96▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Noroeste 4–1–1 Comercial FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Brazil Paulista Cup	Comercial FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Noroeste
31/01/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	Noroeste	1-1 HT 1-0	Comercial FC
03/09/23 Brazil Paulista Cup	Noroeste	3-0 HT 1-0	Comercial FC
30/07/23 Brazil Paulista Cup	Comercial FC	1-3 HT 1-0	Noroeste
11/02/23 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2	Comercial FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Noroeste
03/09/22 Brazil Paulista Cup	Noroeste	1-0 HT 0-0	Comercial FC

Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Comercial FC	5	2	1	2	5	3	7
2	Uniao Sao Joao	5	1	4	0	5	4	7
3	Noroeste	5	1	3	1	6	7	6
4	XV Piracicaba	5	1	2	2	3	5	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Noroeste	Comercial FC
Uniao Sao Joao	1-1 D	1-1 D
XV Piracicaba	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Noroeste (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Noroeste

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Uniao Sao Joao Brazil Paulista Cup	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
09/08	XV Piracicaba Brazil Paulista Cup	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
01/08	XV Piracicaba Brazil Paulista Cup	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
25/07	Uniao Sao Joao Brazil Paulista Cup	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
18/07	Comercial FC Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
28/06	Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D	0-2	1-3	7	6	L
21/06	Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
07/06	Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
30/05	XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/05	Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D	0-1	0-1	11	6	L

Comercial FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	XV Piracicaba Brazil Paulista Cup	0-1	0-1	0	6	L
08/08	Uniao Sao Joao Brazil Paulista Cup	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
01/08	Uniao Sao Joao Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
25/07	XV Piracicaba Brazil Paulista Cup	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
18/07	Noroeste Brazil Paulista Cup	0-0	2-0	2	5	W
04/04	Tanabi Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
28/03	Jabaquara SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-1	1-2	7	5	L
26/03	Inter de Bebedouro Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
21/03	Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	2-1	2-1	4	9	W
19/03	Vocem Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4	2-0	3-1	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Noroeste vs Comercial FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Noroeste win (55%). Probabilities: Noroeste 55%, draw 26%, Comercial FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in Noroeste vs Comercial FC?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Noroeste 1.54 · Comercial FC 0.8), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Noroeste vs Comercial FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.