Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 25/07, 23:00
Prediction: XV Piracicaba vs Comercial FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.1Total
XV Piracicaba1.47
Comercial FC0.63
1X2
XV Piracicaba
Draw
Comercial FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
XV Piracicaba
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Comercial FC
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
XV Piracicaba
4–2–0
Comercial FC
(6 last)
- XV Piracicaba1-0Comercial FC
- Comercial FC1-1XV Piracicaba
- Comercial FC1-4XV Piracicaba
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · XV Piracicaba 1517 · Comercial FC 1531
| XV Piracicaba | Draw | Comercial FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 29% | 15% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours XV Piracicaba: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| XV Piracicaba | Comercial FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 7.2 | 2.2 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.5 | 6.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · XV Piracicaba 4–2–0 Comercial FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | XV Piracicaba | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Comercial FC |
| 20/09/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | Comercial FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | XV Piracicaba |
| 03/03/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | Comercial FC | 1-4 HT 0-4 | XV Piracicaba |
| 02/03/23 Brazil Campeonato Paulista A2 | XV Piracicaba | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Comercial FC |
| 09/12/20 Brazil Paulista Cup | XV Piracicaba | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Comercial FC |
| 05/12/20 Brazil Paulista Cup | Comercial FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | XV Piracicaba |
Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Comercial FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | XV Piracicaba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | Uniao Sao Joao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Noroeste | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
XV Piracicaba
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Uniao Sao Joao Brazil Paulista Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 11/07 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Cianorte Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-4 | 14 | 7 | L |
| 27/06 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | America RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Noroeste Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
Comercial FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Noroeste Brazil Paulista Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Tanabi Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Jabaquara SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 26/03 | Inter de Bebedouro Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 21/03 | Jacarei FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 19/03 | Vocem Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | Aracatuba Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 07/03 | Nacional SP Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 11 | W |
| 04/03 | Sao Caetano Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 28/02 | EC Lemense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A4 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in XV Piracicaba vs Comercial FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a XV Piracicaba win (58%). Probabilities: XV Piracicaba 58%, draw 25%, Comercial FC 16%.
How many goals are expected in XV Piracicaba vs Comercial FC?
The model expects 2.1 goals (XV Piracicaba 1.47 · Comercial FC 0.63), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in XV Piracicaba vs Comercial FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.