Football · Brazil Paulista Cup · 25/07, 20:00
Prediction: Noroeste vs Uniao Sao Joao
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.13Total
Noroeste1.46
Uniao Sao Joao0.67
1X2
Noroeste
Draw
Uniao Sao Joao
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Noroeste
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Uniao Sao Joao
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Noroeste
1–1
Uniao Sao Joao
(2 last)
- Uniao Sao Joao3-0Noroeste
- Noroeste1-0Uniao Sao Joao
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Noroeste 1498 · Uniao Sao Joao 1499
| Noroeste | Draw | Uniao Sao Joao | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 29% | 16% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Noroeste | Uniao Sao Joao | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.9 | 2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Noroeste 1–0–1 Uniao Sao Joao
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | Uniao Sao Joao | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Noroeste |
| 23/08/25 Brazil Paulista Cup | Noroeste | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Uniao Sao Joao |
Standings · Brazil Paulista Cup · Copa Paulista 2026, Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Comercial FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | XV Piracicaba | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | Uniao Sao Joao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Noroeste | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Noroeste
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Comercial FC Brazil Paulista Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Portuguesa RJ Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Sampaio Correa RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Nova Iguacu Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 02/05 | Marica RJ Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Velo Clube SP Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
Uniao Sao Joao
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | XV Piracicaba Brazil Paulista Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Santos America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 21/03 | EC Sao Bernardo Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 14/03 | Paulista FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 11/03 | AA Francana Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 07/03 | Catanduva FC Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/03 | Portuguesa Santista Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 01/03 | Itapirense Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 25/02 | Desportivo Brasil Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 21/02 | Marilia Brazil Campeonato Paulista A3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Noroeste vs Uniao Sao Joao?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Noroeste win (57%). Probabilities: Noroeste 57%, draw 26%, Uniao Sao Joao 18%.
How many goals are expected in Noroeste vs Uniao Sao Joao?
The model expects 2.13 goals (Noroeste 1.46 · Uniao Sao Joao 0.67), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Noroeste vs Uniao Sao Joao?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.