Football · Bulgaria First League · 27/10, 18:30
Prediction: Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia
Team pages: Arda Kardzhali · Levski Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
Arda Kardzhali0.87
Levski Sofia1.62
1X2
Arda Kardzhali
Draw
Levski Sofia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Arda Kardzhali
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Levski Sofia
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arda Kardzhali
0–2–4
Levski Sofia
(6 last)
- Levski Sofia1-0Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali0-3Levski Sofia
- Arda Kardzhali0-3Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia1-1Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali1-1Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia2-1Arda Kardzhali
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arda Kardzhali 1488 · Levski Sofia 1612
| Arda Kardzhali | Draw | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 27% | 54% |
| Market | 19% | 28% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levski Sofia (rating 1488 vs 1612).
- H2H favours Levski Sofia: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arda Kardzhali | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 2.3 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.7 | 2.4 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.5 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arda Kardzhali 0–2–4 Levski Sofia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/26 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 02/11/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Levski Sofia |
| 14/05/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Levski Sofia |
| 26/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 16/03/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Levski Sofia |
| 29/09/24 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Arda Kardzhali |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 28 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 22 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 19 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 9 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 8 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 8 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arda Kardzhali | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Botev Plovdiv | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Botev Vratsa | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Dunav Ruse | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Slavia Sofia | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 7 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Levski Sofia (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arda Kardzhali
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 12/09 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 17/08 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
Levski Sofia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/09 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 07/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 17/07 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Levski Sofia win (54%). Probabilities: Arda Kardzhali 19%, draw 27%, Levski Sofia 54%.
How many goals are expected in Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia?
The model expects 2.49 goals (Arda Kardzhali 0.87 · Levski Sofia 1.62), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.