Football · Bulgaria First League · 06/11, 18:15

Prediction: Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse

Team pages: Botev Plovdiv · Dunav Ruse

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Botev Plovdiv2.12

Dunav Ruse1.18

1X2

58% 22% 20%

Botev Plovdiv Draw Dunav Ruse

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Botev Plovdiv 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWLW

Dunav Ruse 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLDWWL

Head-to-head

Botev Plovdiv 5–1–0 Dunav Ruse (6 last)

Botev Plovdiv3-1Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse1-2Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv3-1Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse1-1Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv4-1Dunav Ruse
Botev Plovdiv3-0Dunav Ruse

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Botev Plovdiv (rating 1568 vs 1482).
H2H favours Botev Plovdiv: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Botev Plovdiv	Dunav Ruse
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.79

Under 2.752.01

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.37▲	Pinn 1.37
X	4.85 → 4.77▼	Pinn 4.77
2	7.87 → 7.66▼	Pinn 7.66

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:14 +37’	1.36	4.85	7.87
00:19 +2’	1.37▲	4.77▼	7.66▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Botev Plovdiv 5–1–0 Dunav Ruse

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/07/20 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	3-1 HT 1-1	Dunav Ruse
06/11/19 Bulgaria First League	Dunav Ruse	1-2 HT 0-1	Botev Plovdiv
21/07/19 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	3-1 HT 1-1	Dunav Ruse
02/03/19 Bulgaria First League	Dunav Ruse	1-1 HT 1-0	Botev Plovdiv
06/10/18 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	4-1 HT 2-1	Dunav Ruse
17/03/18 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	3-0 HT 0-0	Dunav Ruse

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	12	10	2	0	25	5	32
2	CSKA Sofia	13	9	4	0	29	9	31
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	12	9	2	1	24	9	29
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	13	9	1	3	31	14	28
5	Botev Plovdiv	13	7	1	5	22	20	22
6	Arda Kardzhali	12	5	3	4	16	18	18
7	Slavia Sofia	13	2	7	4	9	9	13
8	Spartak Varna	13	3	4	6	12	23	13
9	Dunav Ruse	13	3	2	8	15	22	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	2	4	6	10	21	10
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	13	2	3	8	6	17	9
12	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	13	1	6	6	15	25	9
13	Cherno More Varna	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
14	Septemvri Sofia	12	2	2	8	10	23	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Botev Plovdiv	Dunav Ruse
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	5-2 W	2-2 D
CSKA 1948 Sofia	0-4 L	1-2 L
Slavia Sofia	1-0 W	0-1 L
Septemvri Sofia	3-0 W	3-2 W
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2-0 W	2-1 W
Arda Kardzhali	3-2 W	0-2 L
Levski Sofia	1-3 L	0-1 L
Botev Vratsa	0-1 L	2-2 D
Spartak Varna	3-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Botev Plovdiv (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Botev Plovdiv

WLLLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	2-1	5-2	4	7	W
23/10	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
10/10	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
19/09	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	4	7	W
13/09	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
04/09	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	2-0	3-2	2	4	W
30/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
24/08	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
10/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	3-0	3-2	4	2	W

Dunav Ruse

LWLDLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
24/10	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
11/10	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	3-2	4	4	W
19/09	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	2-1	2-2	1	6	D
12/09	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
07/09	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
31/08	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
21/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-3	4	4	L
16/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
08/08	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Botev Plovdiv win (58%). Probabilities: Botev Plovdiv 58%, draw 22%, Dunav Ruse 20%.

How many goals are expected in Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Botev Plovdiv 2.12 · Dunav Ruse 1.18), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.