Football · Bulgaria First League · 02/11, 16:00
Prediction: Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa
Team pages: Cherno More Varna · Botev Vratsa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.33Total
Cherno More Varna1.42
Botev Vratsa0.91
1X2
Cherno More Varna
Draw
Botev Vratsa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Cherno More Varna
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Botev Vratsa
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cherno More Varna
3–2–1
Botev Vratsa
(6 last)
- Botev Vratsa1-1Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna0-0Botev Vratsa
- Botev Vratsa1-0Cherno More Varna
- Botev Vratsa2-3Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna2-1Botev Vratsa
- Cherno More Varna2-1Botev Vratsa
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cherno More Varna 1466 · Botev Vratsa 1466
| Cherno More Varna | Draw | Botev Vratsa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 30% | 23% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cherno More Varna: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cherno More Varna | Botev Vratsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.2 | 2.1 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.4 | 4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cherno More Varna 3–2–1 Botev Vratsa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/26 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 20/02/26 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Botev Vratsa |
| 29/08/25 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 07/12/24 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Cherno More Varna |
| 12/08/24 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Botev Vratsa |
| 01/03/24 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Botev Vratsa |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 9 | 30 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 5 | 29 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 25 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 18 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 13 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 12 |
| 9 | Dunav Ruse | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 11 |
| 10 | Botev Vratsa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 10 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 9 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 9 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 9 |
| 14 | Septemvri Sofia | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 8 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cherno More Varna | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Levski Sofia | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Arda Kardzhali | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| CSKA Sofia | 1-3 L | 0-5 L |
| Dunav Ruse | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Botev Plovdiv | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 2 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Cherno More Varna (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cherno More Varna
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 11/10 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 11/09 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 06/09 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 21/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
Botev Vratsa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 04/09 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/08 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cherno More Varna win (48%). Probabilities: Cherno More Varna 48%, draw 29%, Botev Vratsa 23%.
How many goals are expected in Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa?
The model expects 2.33 goals (Cherno More Varna 1.42 · Botev Vratsa 0.91), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.