Football · Bulgaria First League · 06/11, 16:00

Prediction: Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Team pages: Septemvri Sofia · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Septemvri Sofia1.25

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1.56

1X2

29% 27% 44%

Septemvri Sofia Draw Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Septemvri Sofia 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLLLL

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLWDDL

Head-to-head

Septemvri Sofia 2–1–3 Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia (6 last)

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1-1Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia3-0Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia1-0Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Septemvri Sofia0-2Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia1-2Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia2-3Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Septemvri Sofia 1412 · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1473

	Septemvri Sofia	Draw	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Our model	29%	27%	43%
Market	30%	27%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia (rating 1412 vs 1473).
H2H favours Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Septemvri Sofia	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	1.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.5	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	5.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +2’	3.10	3.40	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Septemvri Sofia 2–1–3 Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	1-1 HT 1-0	Septemvri Sofia
17/03/26 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	3-0 HT 2-0	Septemvri Sofia
29/08/25 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	1-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
20/05/25 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	0-2 HT 0-2	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
08/12/24 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	1-2 HT 1-1	Septemvri Sofia
12/10/24 Europe Friendlies	Septemvri Sofia	2-3 HT 0-2	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	12	10	2	0	25	5	32
2	CSKA Sofia	13	9	4	0	29	9	31
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	12	9	2	1	24	9	29
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	13	9	1	3	31	14	28
5	Botev Plovdiv	13	7	1	5	22	20	22
6	Arda Kardzhali	12	5	3	4	16	18	18
7	Slavia Sofia	13	2	7	4	9	9	13
8	Spartak Varna	13	3	4	6	12	23	13
9	Dunav Ruse	13	3	2	8	15	22	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	2	4	6	10	21	10
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	13	2	3	8	6	17	9
12	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	13	1	6	6	15	25	9
13	Cherno More Varna	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
14	Septemvri Sofia	12	2	2	8	10	23	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Septemvri Sofia	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Cherno More Varna	0-2 L	2-2 D
Dunav Ruse	2-3 L	2-2 D
Botev Plovdiv	0-3 L	2-5 L
Ludogorets Razgrad	1-2 L	1-2 L
Botev Vratsa	2-3 L	1-1 D
CSKA 1948 Sofia	1-0 W	1-3 L
Spartak Varna	1-0 W	1-0 W
CSKA Sofia	0-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Septemvri Sofia

LLWWDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-2	4	9	L
11/10	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-3	7	4	L
19/09	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	2	7	L
14/09	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
04/09	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-3	9	3	L
28/08	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
23/08	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
17/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
09/08	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
01/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	0	4	L

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

LLDLDLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-2	2-5	4	7	L
24/10	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
10/10	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	10	7	D
20/09	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
16/09	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
11/09	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-2	5	8	D
06/09	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
31/08	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
17/08	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-2	1-3	2	4	L
08/08	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-3	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia win (44%). Probabilities: Septemvri Sofia 29%, draw 27%, Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 44%.

How many goals are expected in Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Septemvri Sofia 1.25 · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1.56), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.