Football · Bulgaria First League · 23/10, 18:00

Prediction: CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv

Team pages: CSKA 1948 Sofia · Botev Plovdiv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

CSKA 1948 Sofia1.47

Botev Plovdiv1.19

1X2

43% 28% 30%

CSKA 1948 Sofia Draw Botev Plovdiv

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CSKA 1948 Sofia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Botev Plovdiv 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLWWWW

Head-to-head

CSKA 1948 Sofia 3–2–1 Botev Plovdiv (6 last)

CSKA 1948 Sofia0-0Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv1-2CSKA 1948 Sofia
Botev Plovdiv0-5CSKA 1948 Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia0-1Botev Plovdiv
CSKA 1948 Sofia2-1Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv0-0CSKA 1948 Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CSKA 1948 Sofia 1556 · Botev Plovdiv 1567

	CSKA 1948 Sofia	Draw	Botev Plovdiv
Our model	43%	28%	29%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CSKA 1948 Sofia: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CSKA 1948 Sofia	Botev Plovdiv
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.3	1.7 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.65 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:56 +158’	2.15	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:02 +392’	2.10	3.25	3.53
05:26 +27’	2.05▼	3.27▲	3.65▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CSKA 1948 Sofia 3–2–1 Botev Plovdiv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	0-0 HT 0-0	Botev Plovdiv
25/09/25 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	1-2 HT 0-1	CSKA 1948 Sofia
16/03/25 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	0-5 HT 0-2	CSKA 1948 Sofia
29/09/24 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	0-1 HT 0-0	Botev Plovdiv
23/05/24 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	2-1 HT 0-0	Botev Plovdiv
06/05/24 Bulgaria First League	Botev Plovdiv	0-0 HT 0-0	CSKA 1948 Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	10	9	1	0	23	4	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	8	3	0	27	9	27
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	10	8	2	0	21	7	26
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	11	7	1	3	21	13	22
5	Botev Plovdiv	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	5	2	4	15	17	17
7	Spartak Varna	11	3	4	4	11	15	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	2	5	4	9	9	11
9	Botev Vratsa	11	2	3	6	9	20	9
10	Dunav Ruse	11	2	2	7	13	21	8
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	6	14	8
12	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	11	1	5	5	12	19	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	2	2	7	10	21	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	1	3	7	11	22	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CSKA 1948 Sofia	Botev Plovdiv
CSKA Sofia	2-3 L	2-3 L
Slavia Sofia	2-1 W	1-0 W
Levski Sofia	0-1 L	1-3 L
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2-0 W	2-0 W
Septemvri Sofia	0-1 L	3-0 W
Cherno More Varna	4-1 W	1-0 W
Arda Kardzhali	2-1 W	3-2 W
Botev Vratsa	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: CSKA 1948 Sofia (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CSKA 1948 Sofia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-3	1	8	L
18/09	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
12/09	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
05/09	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
28/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
23/08	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
14/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-1	4-1	7	2	W
08/08	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	3-1	5	5	W
31/07	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
25/07	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-1	8	1	W

Botev Plovdiv

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
19/09	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	4	7	W
13/09	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
04/09	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	2-0	3-2	2	4	W
30/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
24/08	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
10/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	3-0	3-2	4	2	W
01/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
27/07	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-3	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CSKA 1948 Sofia win (43%). Probabilities: CSKA 1948 Sofia 43%, draw 28%, Botev Plovdiv 30%.

How many goals are expected in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?

The model expects 2.66 goals (CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.47 · Botev Plovdiv 1.19), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.