Football · Bulgaria First League · 27/10, 16:00
Prediction: Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
Team pages: Cherno More Varna · Septemvri Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.73Total
Cherno More Varna1.79
Septemvri Sofia0.93
1X2
Cherno More Varna
Draw
Septemvri Sofia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Cherno More Varna
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Septemvri Sofia
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cherno More Varna
4–2–0
Septemvri Sofia
(6 last)
- Septemvri Sofia0-3Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna1-1Septemvri Sofia
- Septemvri Sofia1-2Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna2-0Septemvri Sofia
- Cherno More Varna3-0Septemvri Sofia
- Septemvri Sofia0-0Cherno More Varna
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cherno More Varna 1454 · Septemvri Sofia 1426
| Cherno More Varna | Draw | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cherno More Varna: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cherno More Varna | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2.1 | 0.9 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.8 | 2.2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.2 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cherno More Varna 4–2–0 Septemvri Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Cherno More Varna |
| 27/09/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 29/11/24 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Cherno More Varna |
| 29/07/24 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 17/03/23 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 05/09/22 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 28 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 22 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 19 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 9 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 8 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 8 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cherno More Varna | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| CSKA Sofia | 1-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Dunav Ruse | 3-1 W | 2-3 L |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Botev Plovdiv | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Spartak Varna | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 7 L | 2 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Cherno More Varna (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 11/09 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 06/09 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 21/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
Septemvri Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 14/09 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 04/09 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 23/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 17/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cherno More Varna win (56%). Probabilities: Cherno More Varna 56%, draw 26%, Septemvri Sofia 18%.
How many goals are expected in Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model expects 2.73 goals (Cherno More Varna 1.79 · Septemvri Sofia 0.93), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.