Football · Bulgaria First League · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna

Team pages: Dunav Ruse · Spartak Varna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Dunav Ruse1.23

Spartak Varna1.12

1X2

38% 30% 32%

Dunav Ruse Draw Spartak Varna

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Dunav Ruse 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDLLDW

Spartak Varna 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDDDLW

Head-to-head

Dunav Ruse 1–1–3 Spartak Varna (5 last)

Spartak Varna0-0Dunav Ruse
Spartak Varna3-1Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse0-1Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna0-4Dunav Ruse
Spartak Varna3-1Dunav Ruse

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dunav Ruse 1467 · Spartak Varna 1484

	Dunav Ruse	Draw	Spartak Varna
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Spartak Varna: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dunav Ruse	Spartak Varna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.9	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	1.2 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.44
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.03 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +5’	2.40	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:12 +671’	2.44	3.08	3.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dunav Ruse 1–1–3 Spartak Varna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Europe Friendlies	Spartak Varna	0-0 HT 0-0	Dunav Ruse
30/03/24 Bulgaria Second League	Spartak Varna	3-1 HT 1-0	Dunav Ruse
17/09/23 Bulgaria Second League	Dunav Ruse	0-1 HT 0-0	Spartak Varna
17/07/21 Europe Friendlies	Spartak Varna	0-4 HT 0-0	Dunav Ruse
14/03/21 Bulgaria Third League	Spartak Varna	3-1 HT 0-1	Dunav Ruse

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	10	9	1	0	23	4	28
2	CSKA Sofia	11	8	3	0	27	9	27
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	10	8	2	0	21	7	26
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	11	7	1	3	21	13	22
5	Botev Plovdiv	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
6	Arda Kardzhali	11	5	2	4	15	17	17
7	Spartak Varna	11	3	4	4	11	15	13
8	Slavia Sofia	11	2	5	4	9	9	11
9	Botev Vratsa	11	2	3	6	9	20	9
10	Dunav Ruse	11	2	2	7	13	21	8
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	11	2	2	7	6	14	8
12	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	11	1	5	5	12	19	8
13	Septemvri Sofia	11	2	2	7	10	21	8
14	Cherno More Varna	11	1	3	7	11	22	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dunav Ruse	Spartak Varna
Septemvri Sofia	3-2 W	0-1 L
Botev Vratsa	2-2 D	1-0 W
Slavia Sofia	0-1 L	0-0 D
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	2-2 D	0-1 L
Cherno More Varna	1-3 L	3-0 W
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2-1 W	1-0 W
CSKA Sofia	1-2 L	1-1 D
Ludogorets Razgrad	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Spartak Varna (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dunav Ruse

LLLWLDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	3-2	4	4	W
19/09	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	2-1	2-2	1	6	D
12/09	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
07/09	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
31/08	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
21/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-3	4	4	L
16/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
08/08	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
02/08	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
27/07	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	2	1	L

Spartak Varna

WWLLLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
20/09	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
13/09	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
05/09	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
22/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-6	1	2	L
17/08	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
10/08	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-3	2-3	1	2	L
03/08	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	1	10	W
26/07	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	3-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dunav Ruse win (38%). Probabilities: Dunav Ruse 38%, draw 30%, Spartak Varna 32%.

How many goals are expected in Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Dunav Ruse 1.23 · Spartak Varna 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.