Football · Bulgaria First League · 26/10, 16:00
Prediction: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
Team pages: Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Slavia Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.84Total
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1.08
Slavia Sofia0.76
1X2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Draw
Slavia Sofia
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Slavia Sofia
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3–3
Slavia Sofia
(6 last)
- Slavia Sofia0-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv2-1Slavia Sofia
- Slavia Sofia1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Slavia Sofia1-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-1Slavia Sofia
- Slavia Sofia2-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1508 · Slavia Sofia 1503
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | Slavia Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| Market | 44% | 30% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.84 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/90/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.8 | 1.7 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.8 / 0.1 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–0–3 Slavia Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Bulgaria First League | Slavia Sofia | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 15/08/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Slavia Sofia |
| 30/06/25 Europe Friendlies | Slavia Sofia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 19/05/25 Bulgaria First League | Slavia Sofia | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 19/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Slavia Sofia |
| 09/11/24 Bulgaria First League | Slavia Sofia | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 28 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 9 | 27 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 22 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 19 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 11 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 9 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 8 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 8 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Botev Plovdiv | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Arda Kardzhali | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Dunav Ruse | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Levski Sofia | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Spartak Varna | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Septemvri Sofia | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 6 L | 1 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Slavia Sofia (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 20/09 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 28/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 16/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 26/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Slavia Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/09 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 07/09 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 02/09 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 22/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 10/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/07 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (43%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 43%, draw 32%, Slavia Sofia 25%.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia?
The model expects 1.84 goals (Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.08 · Slavia Sofia 0.76), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.