Football · Bulgaria First League · 08/11, 16:00
Prediction: Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Team pages: Levski Sofia · CSKA Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.49Total
Levski Sofia1.39
CSKA Sofia1.11
1X2
Levski Sofia
Draw
CSKA Sofia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Levski Sofia
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
CSKA Sofia
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Levski Sofia
2–2–2
CSKA Sofia
(6 last)
- Levski Sofia2-4CSKA Sofia
- Levski Sofia2-0CSKA Sofia
- CSKA Sofia1-3Levski Sofia
- CSKA Sofia1-1Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia0-1CSKA Sofia
- CSKA Sofia2-2Levski Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Levski Sofia 1618 · CSKA Sofia 1576
| Levski Sofia | Draw | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levski Sofia (rating 1618 vs 1576).
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Levski Sofia | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.3 | 2.4 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.1 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6 | 3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 5.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Levski Sofia 2–2–2 CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/26 Bulgaria Supercup | Levski Sofia | 2-4 HT 1-0 | CSKA Sofia |
| 16/05/26 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | CSKA Sofia |
| 25/04/26 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Levski Sofia |
| 13/04/26 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Levski Sofia |
| 08/11/25 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CSKA Sofia |
| 02/03/25 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Levski Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 5 | 32 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 11 | 30 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 16 | 29 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 23 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 19 | 21 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 13 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 13 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 12 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 12 |
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | 11 |
| 13 | Botev Vratsa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 10 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Levski Sofia | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Cherno More Varna | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Botev Vratsa | 0-0 D | 5-0 W |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Slavia Sofia | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Spartak Varna | 6-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Septemvri Sofia | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 2 D 0 L | 5 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Levski Sofia (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Levski Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 27/10 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/09 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 07/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 5 | D |
| 26/10 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 20/09 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 16/09 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 16/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Levski Sofia win (42%). Probabilities: Levski Sofia 42%, draw 28%, CSKA Sofia 29%.
How many goals are expected in Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
The model expects 2.49 goals (Levski Sofia 1.39 · CSKA Sofia 1.11), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.