Football · Bulgaria First League · 08/11, 13:00
Prediction: Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
Team pages: Spartak Varna · Arda Kardzhali
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Spartak Varna1.04
Arda Kardzhali1.5
1X2
Spartak Varna
Draw
Arda Kardzhali
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Spartak Varna
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Arda Kardzhali
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Spartak Varna
2–1–3
Arda Kardzhali
(6 last)
- Arda Kardzhali1-0Spartak Varna
- Spartak Varna3-0Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali2-2Spartak Varna
- Spartak Varna1-0Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali2-0Spartak Varna
- Spartak Varna1-3Arda Kardzhali
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spartak Varna 1453 · Arda Kardzhali 1514
| Spartak Varna | Draw | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Market | 25% | 28% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arda Kardzhali (rating 1453 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Arda Kardzhali: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Spartak Varna | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 2.1 | 1.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.3 | 1.7 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartak Varna 2–1–3 Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Spartak Varna |
| 13/09/25 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 07/02/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Spartak Varna |
| 16/08/24 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 06/03/23 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Spartak Varna |
| 20/08/22 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Arda Kardzhali |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 5 | 32 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 9 | 29 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 22 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 18 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 13 |
| 9 | Dunav Ruse | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 22 | 11 |
| 10 | Botev Vratsa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 10 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 9 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 9 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 9 |
| 14 | Septemvri Sofia | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 8 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Spartak Varna | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-6 L | 1-2 L |
| Dunav Ruse | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Botev Vratsa | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| CSKA Sofia | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 1-1 D | 0-5 L |
| Levski Sofia | 0-6 L | 1-1 D |
| Botev Plovdiv | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 5 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Arda Kardzhali (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spartak Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-2 | 1-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 13/09 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 10/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 12/10 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 19/09 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 12/09 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 17/08 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arda Kardzhali win (47%). Probabilities: Spartak Varna 25%, draw 28%, Arda Kardzhali 47%.
How many goals are expected in Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Spartak Varna 1.04 · Arda Kardzhali 1.5), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.