Football · Bulgaria First League · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna

Team pages: Slavia Sofia · Cherno More Varna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Slavia Sofia1.14

Cherno More Varna1.14

1X2

35% 30% 35%

Slavia Sofia Draw Cherno More Varna

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Slavia Sofia 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWDLLDD

Cherno More Varna 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLDDLW

Head-to-head

Slavia Sofia 2–2–2 Cherno More Varna (6 last)

Cherno More Varna1-3Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia0-0Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna1-1Slavia Sofia
Cherno More Varna1-0Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia1-0Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna3-0Slavia Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Slavia Sofia 1537 · Cherno More Varna 1455

	Slavia Sofia	Draw	Cherno More Varna
Our model	34%	31%	34%
Market	35%	30%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Slavia Sofia (rating 1537 vs 1455).
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Slavia Sofia	Cherno More Varna
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.7	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/90/0%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.4	5.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +53’	2.63	3.10	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Slavia Sofia 2–2–2 Cherno More Varna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Bulgaria First League	Cherno More Varna	1-3 HT 0-1	Slavia Sofia
25/10/25 Bulgaria First League	Slavia Sofia	0-0 HT 0-0	Cherno More Varna
29/03/25 Bulgaria First League	Cherno More Varna	1-1 HT 0-0	Slavia Sofia
14/12/24 Bulgaria Cup	Cherno More Varna	1-0 HT 0-0	Slavia Sofia
04/10/24 Bulgaria First League	Slavia Sofia	1-0 HT 0-0	Cherno More Varna
09/12/23 Bulgaria First League	Cherno More Varna	3-0 HT 1-0	Slavia Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	12	10	2	0	25	5	32
2	CSKA Sofia	13	9	4	0	29	9	31
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	12	9	2	1	24	9	29
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	13	9	1	3	31	14	28
5	Botev Plovdiv	13	7	1	5	22	20	22
6	Arda Kardzhali	12	5	3	4	16	18	18
7	Slavia Sofia	13	2	7	4	9	9	13
8	Spartak Varna	13	3	4	6	12	23	13
9	Dunav Ruse	13	3	2	8	15	22	11
10	Botev Vratsa	12	2	4	6	10	21	10
11	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	13	2	3	8	6	17	9
12	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	13	1	6	6	15	25	9
13	Cherno More Varna	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
14	Septemvri Sofia	12	2	2	8	10	23	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Slavia Sofia	Cherno More Varna
CSKA Sofia	0-0 D	1-3 L
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0-0 D	0-1 L
Botev Plovdiv	0-1 L	0-1 L
CSKA 1948 Sofia	1-2 L	1-4 L
Dunav Ruse	1-0 W	3-1 W
Levski Sofia	1-2 L	0-2 L
Septemvri Sofia	1-1 D	2-0 W
Ludogorets Razgrad	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Slavia Sofia (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Slavia Sofia

WDDLWDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
26/10	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
10/10	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
18/09	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
13/09	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
07/09	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
02/09	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
28/08	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	1	8	D
22/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	2	9	D
10/08	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-0	3-0	5	5	W

Cherno More Varna

LLLWLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-0	3	9	W
11/10	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
19/09	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
11/09	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	2-0	2-2	9	8	D
06/09	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
30/08	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-2	1-3	2	8	L
21/08	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	0-0	3-1	7	4	W
14/08	CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
09/08	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-3	3	6	L
01/08	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Slavia Sofia win (35%). Probabilities: Slavia Sofia 35%, draw 30%, Cherno More Varna 35%.

How many goals are expected in Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Slavia Sofia 1.14 · Cherno More Varna 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.