Football · Bulgaria First League · 07/11, 12:30
Prediction: Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Team pages: Botev Vratsa · Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
Botev Vratsa1.19
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.86
1X2
Botev Vratsa
Draw
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Botev Vratsa
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Botev Vratsa
2–1–3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
(6 last)
- Botev Vratsa1-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv3-0Botev Vratsa
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-3Botev Vratsa
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-0Botev Vratsa
- Botev Vratsa0-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Botev Vratsa2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botev Vratsa 1456 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1499
| Botev Vratsa | Draw | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 33% | 25% |
| Market | 44% | 30% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv Plovdiv (rating 1456 vs 1499).
- H2H favours Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Botev Vratsa | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.8 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.5 | 1.5 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 5.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Botev Vratsa 2–1–3 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 17/10/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Botev Vratsa |
| 15/05/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Botev Vratsa |
| 01/03/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Botev Vratsa |
| 18/10/24 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 25/11/23 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 5 | 32 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 29 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 9 | 29 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 22 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 18 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 13 |
| 9 | Dunav Ruse | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 22 | 11 |
| 10 | Botev Vratsa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 10 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 9 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 9 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 9 |
| 14 | Septemvri Sofia | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 8 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Botev Vratsa | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Dunav Ruse | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Levski Sofia | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Arda Kardzhali | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Botev Plovdiv | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| CSKA Sofia | 0-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Slavia Sofia | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 4 L | 0 W 3 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Botev Vratsa (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botev Vratsa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 13/09 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 04/09 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/08 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 26/10 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 20/09 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 28/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 16/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Botev Vratsa win (43%). Probabilities: Botev Vratsa 43%, draw 31%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 26%.
How many goals are expected in Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model expects 2.05 goals (Botev Vratsa 1.19 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.86), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.