Football · Germany DFB Pokal · 22/08, 15:30
Prediction: Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim
Team pages: Erzgebirge Aue
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.13Total
Erzgebirge Aue1.07
TSG Hoffenheim3.07
1X2
Erzgebirge Aue
Draw
TSG Hoffenheim
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Erzgebirge Aue
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
TSG Hoffenheim
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Erzgebirge Aue 1539 · TSG Hoffenheim 1561
| Erzgebirge Aue | Draw | TSG Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 9% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 4% | 9% | 87% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Erzgebirge Aue | TSG Hoffenheim | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.6 | 3.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 70/0/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4 | 2.8 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.3 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Erzgebirge Aue
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Chemnitzer Germany Regionalliga North East |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | BFC Preussen Germany Regionalliga North East |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 06/08 | BFC Dynamo Germany Regionalliga North East |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 31/07 | SV Tasmania Berlin Germany Regionalliga North East |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | VSG Altglienicke Germany Regionalliga North East |
2-2 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 19/07 | Schalke Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | SK Kladno Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 01/07 | Vysocina Jihlava Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Schweinfurt 05 Germany 3. Liga |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 08/05 | MSV Duisburg Germany 3. Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
TSG Hoffenheim
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Tottenham Elite Club Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 15/08 | Tottenham Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 07/08 | Borussia M'gladbach Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Karlsruher SC Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/07 | Holstein Kiel Elite Club Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Greuther Furth Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/07 | SV Massenbachhausen Club Friendly List |
9-0 | 21-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | SGV Freiberg Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Borussia M'gladbach Germany Bundesliga I |
0-2 | 0-4 | 9 | 10 | L |
| 09/05 | Werder Bremen Germany Bundesliga I |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim?
According to our model, the most likely result is an TSG Hoffenheim win (82%). Probabilities: Erzgebirge Aue 6%, draw 11%, TSG Hoffenheim 82%.
How many goals are expected in Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim?
The model expects 4.13 goals (Erzgebirge Aue 1.07 · TSG Hoffenheim 3.07), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge Aue vs TSG Hoffenheim?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.