Football · Peru Liga 1 · 09/08, 03:00

Prediction: Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima

Team pages: Sport Boys · Alianza Lima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.08Total

Sport Boys0.8

Alianza Lima1.29

1X2

23% 29% 48%

Sport Boys Draw Alianza Lima

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sport Boys 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWWLWW

Alianza Lima 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLLWDW

Head-to-head

Sport Boys 0–6 Alianza Lima (6 last)

Alianza Lima1-0Sport Boys
Alianza Lima3-1Sport Boys
Sport Boys0-1Alianza Lima
Sport Boys0-3Alianza Lima
Sport Boys0-1Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima3-0Sport Boys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sport Boys 1542 · Alianza Lima 1528

	Sport Boys	Draw	Alianza Lima
Our model	22%	31%	47%
Market	24%	28%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alianza Lima: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sport Boys	Alianza Lima
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.3	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	2.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.90

X3.30

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.09 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:28 +3’	3.90	3.30	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:31	3.58	3.11	2.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Boys 0–0–6 Alianza Lima

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	1-0 HT 1-0	Sport Boys
17/10/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	3-1 HT 1-1	Sport Boys
24/05/25 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	0-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
22/09/24 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	0-3 HT 0-2	Alianza Lima
06/07/24 Club Friendly List	Sport Boys	0-1 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima
19/04/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	3-0 HT 1-0	Sport Boys

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	20	14	5	1	37	12	47
2	CD Los Chankas	20	12	4	4	30	26	40
3	Universitario de Deportes	19	10	5	4	28	17	35
4	FBC Melgar	19	10	4	5	34	22	34
5	Cienciano	19	10	3	6	35	27	33
6	Cusco FC	20	10	3	7	30	28	33
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	19	8	5	6	23	20	29
8	Sport Boys	20	7	5	8	18	20	26
9	Sporting Cristal	20	7	4	9	32	32	25
10	Alianza Atletico	20	6	6	8	25	26	24
11	Comerciantes Unidos	20	5	8	7	24	27	23
12	Sport Huancayo	20	6	4	10	26	33	22
13	AD Tarma	19	5	5	9	23	25	20
14	Deportivo Moquegua	19	5	5	9	19	26	20
15	Juan Pablo II College	20	5	5	10	26	44	20
16	Atletico Grau	20	5	4	11	15	22	19
17	FC Cajamarca	20	4	6	10	26	34	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	20	4	7	9	23	33	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sport Boys	Alianza Lima
CD Los Chankas	0-1 L	3-0 W
Comerciantes Unidos	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sport Boys

DWDWDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
25/07	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
19/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
11/07	Comerciantes FC Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
28/06	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	3-0	5	9	W
13/06	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	2-2	3	7	D
31/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
23/05	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/05	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
12/05	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Alianza Lima

WWDDLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	8	5	W
26/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
20/07	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	11	7	W
12/07	Deportivo Cali America Friendlies	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
28/06	Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
21/06	Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-3	9	5	L
14/06	Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
31/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	1	0	D
24/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
17/05	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza Lima win (48%). Probabilities: Sport Boys 23%, draw 29%, Alianza Lima 48%.

How many goals are expected in Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima?

The model expects 2.08 goals (Sport Boys 0.8 · Alianza Lima 1.29), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.