Football · Peru Liga 1 · 08/08, 03:00

Prediction: Universitario de Deportes vs Sporting Cristal

Team pages: Universitario de Deportes · Sporting Cristal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Universitario de Deportes1.44

Sporting Cristal0.83

1X2

51% 27% 21%

Universitario de Deportes Draw Sporting Cristal

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Universitario de Deportes 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDWLDWWW

Sporting Cristal 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWDLLW

Head-to-head

Universitario de Deportes 3–2–1 Sporting Cristal (6 last)

Sporting Cristal2-2Universitario de Deportes
Sporting Cristal0-1Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes2-0Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal2-1Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes4-1Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal0-0Universitario de Deportes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universitario de Deportes 1548 · Sporting Cristal 1517

	Universitario de Deportes	Draw	Sporting Cristal
Our model	50%	29%	20%
Market	52%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universitario de Deportes	Sporting Cristal
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.4	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.6	3.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.02

2 (+0.75)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:56 +7’	1.75	3.60	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario de Deportes 3–2–1 Sporting Cristal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	2-2 HT 0-2	Universitario de Deportes
24/10/25 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	0-1 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes
23/05/25 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	2-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Cristal
24/10/24 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	2-1 HT 1-0	Universitario de Deportes
13/05/24 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	4-1 HT 1-1	Sporting Cristal
17/09/23 Peru Liga 1	Sporting Cristal	0-0 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	20	14	5	1	37	12	47
2	CD Los Chankas	20	12	4	4	30	26	40
3	Universitario de Deportes	19	10	5	4	28	17	35
4	FBC Melgar	19	10	4	5	34	22	34
5	Cienciano	19	10	3	6	35	27	33
6	Cusco FC	20	10	3	7	30	28	33
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	19	8	5	6	23	20	29
8	Sport Boys	20	7	5	8	18	20	26
9	Sporting Cristal	20	7	4	9	32	32	25
10	Alianza Atletico	20	6	6	8	25	26	24
11	Comerciantes Unidos	20	5	8	7	24	27	23
12	Sport Huancayo	20	6	4	10	26	33	22
13	AD Tarma	19	5	5	9	23	25	20
14	Deportivo Moquegua	19	5	5	9	19	26	20
15	Juan Pablo II College	20	5	5	10	26	44	20
16	Atletico Grau	20	5	4	11	15	22	19
17	FC Cajamarca	20	4	6	10	26	34	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	20	4	7	9	23	33	14

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Universitario de Deportes

LDDDWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
11/07	Millonarios America Friendlies	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
27/06	Atletico Grau Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	1-1	8	11	D
13/06	Pirata FC Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-2	0	0	L
31/05	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	12	3	W
27/05	Deportes Tolima Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
23/05	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
21/05	Nacional De Football Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
16/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	8	5	L

Sporting Cristal

LDWWDWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	6	7	W
30/07	Bragantino Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-1	0	7	L
26/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
23/07	Bragantino Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
17/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
11/07	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-1	10	1	D
27/06	Union Comercio Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
21/06	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-1	7	8	W
13/06	Comerciantes FC Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
01/06	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-3	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universitario de Deportes vs Sporting Cristal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universitario de Deportes win (51%). Probabilities: Universitario de Deportes 51%, draw 27%, Sporting Cristal 21%.

How many goals are expected in Universitario de Deportes vs Sporting Cristal?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Universitario de Deportes 1.44 · Sporting Cristal 0.83), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Universitario de Deportes vs Sporting Cristal?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.