Football · Peru Liga 1 · 09/08, 20:00

Prediction: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Deportivo Moquegua

Team pages: Deportivo Garcilaso · Deportivo Moquegua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Deportivo Garcilaso1.49

Deportivo Moquegua0.54

1X2

61% 25% 14%

Deportivo Garcilaso Draw Deportivo Moquegua

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Garcilaso 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLWDLWW

Deportivo Moquegua 1-7-2 (W-D-L)

DLDLWDDDDD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1–1 Deportivo Moquegua (2 last)

Deportivo Moquegua0-0Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Moquegua1-0Deportivo Garcilaso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Garcilaso 1531 · Deportivo Moquegua 1497

	Deportivo Garcilaso	Draw	Deportivo Moquegua
Our model	60%	28%	12%
Market	62%	23%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Garcilaso	Deportivo Moquegua
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.6	1.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.7	4.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.00

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.61 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:35 +4’	1.48	4.00	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +1’	1.61	3.74	5.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Garcilaso 0–1–1 Deportivo Moquegua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Deportivo Moquegua	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Garcilaso
23/02/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Moquegua	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Garcilaso

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	20	14	5	1	37	12	47
2	CD Los Chankas	20	12	4	4	30	26	40
3	Universitario de Deportes	19	10	5	4	28	17	35
4	FBC Melgar	19	10	4	5	34	22	34
5	Cienciano	19	10	3	6	35	27	33
6	Cusco FC	20	10	3	7	30	28	33
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	19	8	5	6	23	20	29
8	Sport Boys	20	7	5	8	18	20	26
9	Sporting Cristal	20	7	4	9	32	32	25
10	Alianza Atletico	20	6	6	8	25	26	24
11	Comerciantes Unidos	20	5	8	7	24	27	23
12	Sport Huancayo	20	6	4	10	26	33	22
13	AD Tarma	19	5	5	9	23	25	20
14	Deportivo Moquegua	19	5	5	9	19	26	20
15	Juan Pablo II College	20	5	5	10	26	44	20
16	Atletico Grau	20	5	4	11	15	22	19
17	FC Cajamarca	20	4	6	10	26	34	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	20	4	7	9	23	33	14

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Garcilaso	Deportivo Moquegua
AD Tarma	1-0 W	2-2 D
Comerciantes Unidos	0-0 D	2-2 D
UTC Cajamarca	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Garcilaso (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Garcilaso

WDWDLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
27/07	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
17/07	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
12/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
29/06	Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
22/06	Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	1-2	1	11	L
15/06	Cusco FC Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
30/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-1	0	4	W
25/05	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
17/05	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	1	7	W

Deportivo Moquegua

DLDLWDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/07	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
18/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-2	5	5	D
12/07	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
29/06	FBC Melgar Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	5	10	D
21/06	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga	2-2	3-2	2	5	W
29/05	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/05	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
17/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
09/05	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Deportivo Moquegua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Garcilaso win (61%). Probabilities: Deportivo Garcilaso 61%, draw 25%, Deportivo Moquegua 14%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Deportivo Garcilaso 1.49 · Deportivo Moquegua 0.54), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.