Prediction: FBC Melgar vs FC Cajamarca
Team pages: FBC Melgar · FC Cajamarca
- FC Cajamarca3-1FBC Melgar
| FBC Melgar | Draw | FC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 20% | 13% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBC Melgar (rating 1543 vs 1492).
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FBC Melgar | FC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 6 | 0.9 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.4 | 5.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FBC Melgar 0–0–1 FC Cajamarca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | FC Cajamarca | 3-1 HT 0-1 | FBC Melgar |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 20 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 12 | 47 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 40 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 36 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 35 |
| 5 | Universitario de Deportes | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 19 | 35 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 33 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 32 |
| 8 | Sport Boys | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 20 | 26 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 25 |
| 10 | Alianza Atletico | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 26 | 24 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 27 | 23 |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 33 | 22 |
| 13 | Deportivo Moquegua | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 21 |
| 14 | AD Tarma | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 26 | 20 |
| 15 | Juan Pablo II College | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 44 | 20 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 22 | 19 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 34 | 18 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 33 | 14 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FBC Melgar | FC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Alianza Atletico | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Juan Pablo II College | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Sport Huancayo | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| UTC Cajamarca | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FBC Melgar (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FBC Melgar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 29/06 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 10 | D |
| 12/06 | Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
FC Cajamarca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 27/07 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 17/07 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 26/06 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 20/06 | Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 31/05 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 24/05 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 15/05 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 08/05 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FBC Melgar vs FC Cajamarca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FBC Melgar win (66%). Probabilities: FBC Melgar 66%, draw 21%, FC Cajamarca 13%.
How many goals are expected in FBC Melgar vs FC Cajamarca?
The model expects 3.17 goals (FBC Melgar 2.24 · FC Cajamarca 0.93), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FBC Melgar vs FC Cajamarca?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.