Football · Peru Liga 1 · 01/08, 20:00

Prediction: FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

FC Cajamarca1.36

Sport Huancayo1.43

1X2

34% 28% 38%

FC Cajamarca Draw Sport Huancayo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cajamarca 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Sport Huancayo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Cajamarca 0–1 Sport Huancayo (1 last)

Sport Huancayo2-0FC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Cajamarca 1488 · Sport Huancayo 1535

	FC Cajamarca	Draw	Sport Huancayo
Our model	34%	28%	38%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sport Huancayo (rating 1488 vs 1535).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cajamarca	Sport Huancayo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.1	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.25

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.70▲	Bet365 2.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.00 → 2.45▼	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:14 +11’	2.30	3.25	3.00
00:15 +2’	2.70▲	3.25	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cajamarca 0–0–1 Sport Huancayo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Peru Liga 1	Sport Huancayo	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	18	13	4	1	32	9	43
2	CD Los Chankas	19	11	4	4	27	24	37
3	Universitario de Deportes	19	10	5	4	28	17	35
4	FBC Melgar	19	10	4	5	34	22	34
5	Cienciano	19	10	3	6	35	27	33
6	Cusco FC	19	9	3	7	26	27	30
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	18	7	5	6	21	19	26
8	Alianza Atletico	19	6	6	7	24	23	24
9	Sport Boys	19	6	5	8	17	20	23
10	Sporting Cristal	19	6	4	9	30	32	22
11	Comerciantes Unidos	18	5	7	6	20	22	22
12	AD Tarma	19	5	5	9	23	25	20
13	Juan Pablo II College	19	5	5	9	26	42	20
14	Atletico Grau	19	5	4	10	15	21	19
15	Deportivo Moquegua	18	5	4	9	19	26	19
16	Sport Huancayo	19	5	4	10	24	33	19
17	FC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	25	30	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	18	4	6	8	22	29	13

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cajamarca	Sport Huancayo
Juan Pablo II College	2-2 D	2-1 W
Alianza Lima	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Cajamarca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	1	9	D
26/06	UTC Cajamarca Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	1-3	8	6	L
20/06	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
31/05	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	2	0	D
24/05	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	0	3	D
15/05	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	6	9	W
08/05	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
02/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-2	2	6	W
25/04	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
23/04	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	2	3	L

Sport Huancayo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	10	3	W
20/07	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
11/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	3-1	9	3	W
26/06	AD Tarma Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
21/06	Union Minas Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
14/06	Alianza Universidad Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
31/05	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
24/05	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
16/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	3	7	L
10/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sport Huancayo win (38%). Probabilities: FC Cajamarca 34%, draw 28%, Sport Huancayo 38%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo?

The model expects 2.79 goals (FC Cajamarca 1.36 · Sport Huancayo 1.43), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.