Football · Peru Liga 1 · 15/08, 20:00
Prediction: AD Tarma vs Alianza Atletico
Team pages: AD Tarma · Alianza Atletico
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.47Total
AD Tarma1.24
Alianza Atletico1.23
1X2
AD Tarma
Draw
Alianza Atletico
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
AD Tarma
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Alianza Atletico
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AD Tarma
3–1–2
Alianza Atletico
(6 last)
- Alianza Atletico0-0AD Tarma
- AD Tarma1-0Alianza Atletico
- Alianza Atletico2-0AD Tarma
- AD Tarma0-1Alianza Atletico
- Alianza Atletico1-2AD Tarma
- AD Tarma1-0Alianza Atletico
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Atletico (rating 1473 vs 1527).
- H2H favours AD Tarma: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AD Tarma | Alianza Atletico | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.2 | 1.3 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.6 | 4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Tarma 3–1–2 Alianza Atletico
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 0-0 HT 0-0 | AD Tarma |
| 26/09/25 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza Atletico |
| 04/05/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 2-0 HT 1-0 | AD Tarma |
| 28/09/24 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Alianza Atletico |
| 28/04/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Atletico | 1-2 HT 0-1 | AD Tarma |
| 24/09/23 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Alianza Atletico |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 38 | 13 | 48 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 27 | 41 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 28 | 36 |
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 36 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 35 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 31 | 33 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 32 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 27 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 26 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 28 | 26 |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 34 | 23 |
| 13 | AD Tarma | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 27 | 21 |
| 14 | Deportivo Moquegua | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 21 |
| 15 | Juan Pablo II College | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 44 | 21 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 22 | 20 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 34 | 18 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 34 | 15 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AD Tarma | Alianza Atletico |
|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Cusco FC | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: AD Tarma (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AD Tarma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 18/07 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 10/07 | Cienciano Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 26/06 | Sport Huancayo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 19/06 | Alianza Universidad Peru Copa de la Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/06 | Union Minas Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 9 | L |
Alianza Atletico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/07 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 10/07 | Pirata FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 28/06 | Alianza Lima Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 19/06 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AD Tarma vs Alianza Atletico?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Tarma win (35%). Probabilities: AD Tarma 35%, draw 30%, Alianza Atletico 35%.
How many goals are expected in AD Tarma vs Alianza Atletico?
The model expects 2.47 goals (AD Tarma 1.24 · Alianza Atletico 1.23), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in AD Tarma vs Alianza Atletico?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.