Football · Peru Liga 1 · 16/08, 02:30
Prediction: Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca
Team pages: Alianza Lima · UTC Cajamarca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
Alianza Lima1.9
UTC Cajamarca1.08
1X2
Alianza Lima
Draw
UTC Cajamarca
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Alianza Lima
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
UTC Cajamarca
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alianza Lima
5–1–0
UTC Cajamarca
(6 last)
- UTC Cajamarca0-1Alianza Lima
- Alianza Lima3-0UTC Cajamarca
- UTC Cajamarca0-0Alianza Lima
- UTC Cajamarca0-1Alianza Lima
- Alianza Lima1-0UTC Cajamarca
- Alianza Lima1-0UTC Cajamarca
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Lima (rating 1522 vs 1455).
- H2H favours Alianza Lima: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alianza Lima | UTC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.7 | 2.7 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 5–1–0 UTC Cajamarca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Alianza Lima |
| 23/11/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 3-0 HT 2-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 12/07/25 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Alianza Lima |
| 18/10/24 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Alianza Lima |
| 04/05/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 1-0 HT 0-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 06/08/23 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 1-0 HT 0-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 38 | 13 | 48 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 27 | 41 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 28 | 36 |
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 36 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 35 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 31 | 33 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 32 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 27 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 26 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 28 | 26 |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 34 | 23 |
| 13 | AD Tarma | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 27 | 21 |
| 14 | Deportivo Moquegua | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 21 |
| 15 | Juan Pablo II College | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 44 | 21 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 22 | 20 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 34 | 18 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 34 | 15 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alianza Lima | UTC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Boys | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| FC Cajamarca | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| CD Los Chankas | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alianza Lima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 20/07 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 7 | W |
| 12/07 | Deportivo Cali America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 28/06 | Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 24/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
UTC Cajamarca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | Club Ada Jaen Peru Copa de la Liga |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/06 | FC Cajamarca Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 15/06 | Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 31/05 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Lima win (55%). Probabilities: Alianza Lima 55%, draw 24%, UTC Cajamarca 20%.
How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Alianza Lima 1.9 · UTC Cajamarca 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.