Football · Peru Liga 1 · 04/09, 22:15

Prediction: Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca

Team pages: Alianza Atletico · UTC Cajamarca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Alianza Atletico1.98

UTC Cajamarca1.1

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Alianza Atletico Draw UTC Cajamarca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Atletico 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLWDWW

UTC Cajamarca 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLDLLL

Head-to-head

Alianza Atletico 2–4–0 UTC Cajamarca (6 last)

Alianza Atletico1-1UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca1-1Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico2-0UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca0-0Alianza Atletico
UTC Cajamarca1-1Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico2-0UTC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Atletico 1548 · UTC Cajamarca 1444

	Alianza Atletico	Draw	UTC Cajamarca
Our model	57%	24%	20%
Market	56%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Atletico (rating 1548 vs 1444).
H2H favours Alianza Atletico: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Atletico	UTC Cajamarca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.5	3.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.80 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +5’	1.67	3.60	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:22	1.65	3.80	4.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Atletico 2–4–0 UTC Cajamarca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/08/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Alianza Atletico	1-1 HT 1-1	UTC Cajamarca
22/03/26 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	1-1 HT 1-0	Alianza Atletico
11/08/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	2-0 HT 2-0	UTC Cajamarca
08/03/25 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Atletico
01/08/24 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	1-1 HT 1-0	Alianza Atletico
16/02/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	2-0 HT 1-0	UTC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	24	15	7	2	40	15	52
2	Universitario de Deportes	24	13	6	5	39	24	45
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	24	12	6	6	31	21	42
4	CD Los Chankas	24	12	5	7	34	37	41
5	FBC Melgar	23	11	6	6	40	27	39
6	Cienciano	23	11	4	8	38	33	37
7	Cusco FC	23	11	3	9	34	35	36
8	Alianza Atletico	23	8	7	8	30	28	31
9	Sport Boys	23	8	7	8	25	23	31
10	Sporting Cristal	23	8	5	10	38	37	29
11	Comerciantes Unidos	24	7	8	9	32	33	29
12	Juan Pablo II College	24	7	6	11	35	50	27
13	Atletico Grau	23	7	5	11	19	23	26
14	Deportivo Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
15	FC Cajamarca	24	6	6	12	36	44	24
16	Sport Huancayo	23	6	5	12	28	40	23
17	AD Tarma	23	5	7	11	26	33	22
18	UTC Cajamarca	24	4	8	12	27	42	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Atletico	UTC Cajamarca
Deportivo Moquegua	4-1 W	0-0 D
AD Tarma	1-1 D	1-1 D
Alianza Lima	1-3 L	0-1 L
CD Los Chankas	3-1 W	2-2 D
Cusco FC	1-4 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Atletico (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Atletico

WDLLWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-1	4	5	W
21/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
15/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
06/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
02/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
24/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
19/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	2	2	L
31/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	1	4	L
24/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
16/05	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	6	W

UTC Cajamarca

LDDLDLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-4	3	6	L
22/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
16/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
08/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
02/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	3	5	L
26/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
31/05	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-2	2-2	7	4	D
23/05	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/05	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Atletico win (56%). Probabilities: Alianza Atletico 56%, draw 25%, UTC Cajamarca 19%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Alianza Atletico 1.98 · UTC Cajamarca 1.1), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Atletico vs UTC Cajamarca?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.