Football · Peru Liga 1 · 24/10, 19:45

Prediction: Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico

Team pages: Sport Huancayo · Alianza Atletico

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Sport Huancayo2.18

Alianza Atletico1.11

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Sport Huancayo Draw Alianza Atletico

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sport Huancayo 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWWWWW

Alianza Atletico 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Sport Huancayo 3–2–1 Alianza Atletico (6 last)

Alianza Atletico4-1Sport Huancayo
Alianza Atletico0-0Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo2-1Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico1-1Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo4-0Alianza Atletico
Sport Huancayo2-0Alianza Atletico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sport Huancayo 1544 · Alianza Atletico 1594

	Sport Huancayo	Draw	Alianza Atletico
Our model	61%	22%	18%
Market	60%	24%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Atletico (rating 1544 vs 1594).
H2H favours Sport Huancayo: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sport Huancayo	Alianza Atletico
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.5	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.6	5.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.90

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.24 ★
2	5.50 → 5.50	Pinn 5.74

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +1’	1.53	3.90	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:09 +6’	1.50	4.24	5.74

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Huancayo 3–2–1 Alianza Atletico

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	4-1 HT 3-1	Sport Huancayo
18/07/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	0-0 HT 0-0	Sport Huancayo
07/02/25 Peru Liga 1	Sport Huancayo	2-1 HT 2-0	Alianza Atletico
05/08/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	1-1 HT 1-0	Sport Huancayo
23/02/24 Peru Liga 1	Sport Huancayo	4-0 HT 3-0	Alianza Atletico
31/07/23 Peru Liga 1	Sport Huancayo	2-0 HT 2-0	Alianza Atletico

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	62
2	FBC Melgar	29	14	8	7	51	33	50
3	Universitario de Deportes	28	14	8	6	45	33	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	48
5	CD Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	46
6	Cusco FC	29	14	3	12	42	42	45
7	Cienciano	28	13	5	10	48	40	44
8	Alianza Atletico	28	12	7	9	43	36	43
9	Sporting Cristal	28	12	5	11	49	40	41
10	Sport Huancayo	29	12	5	12	40	45	41
11	Juan Pablo II College	29	10	8	11	45	53	38
12	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	34
13	Atletico Grau	29	9	6	14	27	34	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	7	10	11	36	39	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	7	7	14	41	52	26
16	AD Tarma	29	6	8	15	30	44	25
17	Deportivo Moquegua	28	6	7	15	24	43	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	4	8	16	32	51	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sport Huancayo	Alianza Atletico
UTC Cajamarca	3-2 W	3-2 W
Comerciantes Unidos	1-0 W	2-1 W
Sport Boys	2-1 W	3-1 W
AD Tarma	3-1 W	1-1 D
Deportivo Moquegua	0-2 L	4-1 W
Sporting Cristal	1-4 L	3-1 W
CD Los Chankas	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Alianza Atletico (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sport Huancayo

WDLLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-1	9	7	W
10/10	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
20/09	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	7	6	W
12/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
05/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	9	8	W
30/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	3-0	3-1	0	10	W
22/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	10	5	L
16/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	4	4	L
07/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	11	8	D
01/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	2	6	W

Alianza Atletico

WLWDWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	2	9	W
18/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	10	4	W
13/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
04/09	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	5	6	W
30/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-1	4	5	W
21/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	6	5	W
15/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
06/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
02/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
24/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Huancayo win (60%). Probabilities: Sport Huancayo 60%, draw 23%, Alianza Atletico 17%.

How many goals are expected in Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Sport Huancayo 2.18 · Alianza Atletico 1.11), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sport Huancayo vs Alianza Atletico?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.