Football · Peru Liga 1 · 14/11, 22:00

Prediction: Cusco FC vs AD Tarma

Team pages: Cusco FC · AD Tarma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Cusco FC2.04

AD Tarma0.75

1X2

67% 21% 12%

Cusco FC Draw AD Tarma

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cusco FC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWWLL

AD Tarma 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLDWDD

Head-to-head

Cusco FC 4–2 AD Tarma (6 last)

AD Tarma1-2Cusco FC
Cusco FC0-2AD Tarma
AD Tarma2-1Cusco FC
AD Tarma1-2Cusco FC
Cusco FC3-2AD Tarma
Cusco FC1-0AD Tarma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cusco FC 1494 · AD Tarma 1451

	Cusco FC	Draw	AD Tarma
Our model	67%	22%	12%
Market	67%	21%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cusco FC (rating 1494 vs 1451).
H2H favours Cusco FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cusco FC	AD Tarma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.5	5.5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:51 +16’	1.38	4.50	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cusco FC 4–0–2 AD Tarma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	1-2 HT 1-2	Cusco FC
23/09/25 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	0-2 HT 0-1	AD Tarma
28/04/25 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	2-1 HT 0-1	Cusco FC
17/09/24 Peru Liga 1	AD Tarma	1-2 HT 1-0	Cusco FC
15/04/24 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	3-2 HT 2-2	AD Tarma
02/09/23 Peru Liga 1	Cusco FC	1-0 HT 1-0	AD Tarma

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	32	20	8	4	53	23	68
2	Universitario de Deportes	32	17	9	6	57	37	60
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	56	38	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	32	16	6	10	50	35	54
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	63	48	51
6	Cusco FC	33	16	3	14	46	47	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	54	46	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	48	49	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	49	48	49
10	CD Los Chankas	32	13	8	11	39	51	47
11	Sport Boys	32	12	9	11	37	35	41
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	48	59	41
13	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	32	41	37
14	Comerciantes Unidos	32	8	12	12	44	47	36
15	AD Tarma	33	7	11	15	36	48	31
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	46	65	29
17	Deportivo Moquegua	32	7	8	17	25	46	29
18	UTC Cajamarca	32	5	8	19	38	58	13

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cusco FC	AD Tarma
Atletico Grau	0-3 L	1-1 D
CD Los Chankas	1-0 W	1-2 L
Sporting Cristal	3-1 W	1-1 D
Sport Huancayo	1-2 L	1-3 L
Alianza Lima	1-2 L	0-2 L
FC Cajamarca	2-1 W	0-0 D
FBC Melgar	0-1 L	0-3 L
Deportivo Moquegua	2-0 W	2-0 W
Cienciano	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Cusco FC (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cusco FC

WWLWLLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
01/11	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	12	3	L
29/10	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
24/10	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-1	2	3	W
16/10	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-2	2	7	L
12/10	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
19/09	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-1	3	2	W
12/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	9	5	L
06/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
31/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

AD Tarma

LLLWDLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/11	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
28/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
23/10	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	4	10	D
16/10	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
10/10	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	9	8	D
23/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
19/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
07/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
30/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-3	1-3	9	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cusco FC vs AD Tarma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cusco FC win (67%). Probabilities: Cusco FC 67%, draw 21%, AD Tarma 12%.

How many goals are expected in Cusco FC vs AD Tarma?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Cusco FC 2.04 · AD Tarma 0.75), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cusco FC vs AD Tarma?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.