Football · Peru Liga 1 · 14/11, 22:00

Prediction: Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys

Team pages: Comerciantes Unidos · Sport Boys

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Comerciantes Unidos1.5

Sport Boys1.19

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Comerciantes Unidos Draw Sport Boys

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Comerciantes Unidos 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDLWDD

Sport Boys 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLWWDD

Head-to-head

Comerciantes Unidos 1–3–2 Sport Boys (6 last)

Sport Boys1-0Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Boys0-1Comerciantes Unidos
Comerciantes Unidos0-4Sport Boys
Comerciantes Unidos0-0Sport Boys
Sport Boys1-1Comerciantes Unidos
Sport Boys0-0Comerciantes Unidos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Comerciantes Unidos 1477 · Sport Boys 1497

	Comerciantes Unidos	Draw	Sport Boys
Our model	43%	28%	29%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sport Boys: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Comerciantes Unidos	Sport Boys
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.5	2.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.7	4.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.71
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 4.20 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:06	2.15	3.30	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:45 +21’	1.77	3.71	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Comerciantes Unidos 1–3–2 Sport Boys

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	1-0 HT 0-0	Comerciantes Unidos
13/09/25 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	0-1 HT 0-0	Comerciantes Unidos
13/04/25 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	0-4 HT 0-2	Sport Boys
24/10/24 Peru Liga 1	Comerciantes Unidos	0-0 HT 0-0	Sport Boys
11/05/24 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	1-1 HT 1-0	Comerciantes Unidos
29/06/19 Peru Copa Bicentenario	Sport Boys	0-0 HT 0-0	Comerciantes Unidos

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	32	20	8	4	53	23	68
2	Universitario de Deportes	32	17	9	6	57	37	60
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	56	38	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	32	16	6	10	50	35	54
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	63	48	51
6	Cusco FC	33	16	3	14	46	47	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	54	46	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	48	49	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	49	48	49
10	CD Los Chankas	32	13	8	11	39	51	47
11	Sport Boys	32	12	9	11	37	35	41
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	48	59	41
13	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	32	41	37
14	Comerciantes Unidos	32	8	12	12	44	47	36
15	AD Tarma	33	7	11	15	36	48	31
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	46	65	29
17	Deportivo Moquegua	32	7	8	17	25	46	29
18	UTC Cajamarca	32	5	8	19	38	58	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Comerciantes Unidos	Sport Boys
FBC Melgar	1-1 D	1-1 D
Sporting Cristal	2-4 L	1-0 W
Juan Pablo II College	1-1 D	0-2 L
Alianza Atletico	1-2 L	1-3 L
Sport Huancayo	0-1 L	1-2 L
Universitario de Deportes	2-2 D	2-2 D
FC Cajamarca	2-3 L	4-2 W
UTC Cajamarca	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Comerciantes Unidos (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Comerciantes Unidos

WLDLLDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
30/10	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
25/10	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	6	6	W
18/10	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-4	5	1	L
10/10	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
18/09	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
12/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
06/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
28/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-2	2-3	5	4	L
22/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	6	2	W

Sport Boys

WLWDLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
05/11	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
01/11	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
25/10	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	4-2	4	2	W
17/10	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
11/10	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	6	9	L
20/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
13/09	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
05/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	2	8	L
30/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Comerciantes Unidos win (43%). Probabilities: Comerciantes Unidos 43%, draw 28%, Sport Boys 29%.

How many goals are expected in Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Comerciantes Unidos 1.5 · Sport Boys 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Comerciantes Unidos vs Sport Boys?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.