Football · Peru Liga 1 · 14/11, 22:00

Prediction: UTC Cajamarca vs CD Los Chankas

Team pages: UTC Cajamarca · CD Los Chankas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

UTC Cajamarca1.61

CD Los Chankas1.36

1X2

42% 27% 31%

UTC Cajamarca Draw CD Los Chankas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

UTC Cajamarca 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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CD Los Chankas 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

UTC Cajamarca 2–2–1 CD Los Chankas (5 last)

CD Los Chankas2-2UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca2-0CD Los Chankas
CD Los Chankas2-1UTC Cajamarca
CD Los Chankas1-1UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca2-0CD Los Chankas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UTC Cajamarca 1419 · CD Los Chankas 1436

	UTC Cajamarca	Draw	CD Los Chankas
Our model	42%	26%	31%
Market	42%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours UTC Cajamarca: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UTC Cajamarca	CD Los Chankas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.3	0.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	1.1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.7	4.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:05 +2’	2.20	3.30	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UTC Cajamarca 2–2–1 CD Los Chankas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Peru Liga 1	CD Los Chankas	2-2 HT 2-0	UTC Cajamarca
29/09/25 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Los Chankas
11/05/25 Peru Liga 1	CD Los Chankas	2-1 HT 1-1	UTC Cajamarca
19/09/24 Peru Liga 1	CD Los Chankas	1-1 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca
15/04/24 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Los Chankas

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	32	20	8	4	53	23	68
2	Universitario de Deportes	32	17	9	6	57	37	60
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	56	38	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	32	16	6	10	50	35	54
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	63	48	51
6	Cusco FC	33	16	3	14	46	47	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	54	46	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	48	49	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	49	48	49
10	CD Los Chankas	32	13	8	11	39	51	47
11	Sport Boys	32	12	9	11	37	35	41
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	48	59	41
13	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	32	41	37
14	Comerciantes Unidos	32	8	12	12	44	47	36
15	AD Tarma	33	7	11	15	36	48	31
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	46	65	29
17	Deportivo Moquegua	32	7	8	17	25	46	29
18	UTC Cajamarca	32	5	8	19	38	58	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UTC Cajamarca	CD Los Chankas
Deportivo Garcilaso	2-3 L	1-4 L
FC Cajamarca	3-1 W	1-2 L
Cienciano	0-1 L	1-1 D
Sporting Cristal	0-1 L	0-5 L
Juan Pablo II College	1-2 L	3-4 L
Universitario de Deportes	2-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: UTC Cajamarca (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UTC Cajamarca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	2-2	2-3	6	5	L
28/10	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
23/10	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
19/10	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
11/10	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
20/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	1	6	L
11/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	3	11	L
04/09	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	2	6	L
29/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-4	3	6	L
22/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	7	2	L

CD Los Chankas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
29/10	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
26/10	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	3	6	L
16/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	5	7	W
08/10	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
30/09	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
12/09	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-2	2	6	L
06/09	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-5	7	4	L
29/08	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	2-3	3-4	4	5	L
24/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-3	0	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UTC Cajamarca vs CD Los Chankas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UTC Cajamarca win (42%). Probabilities: UTC Cajamarca 42%, draw 27%, CD Los Chankas 31%.

How many goals are expected in UTC Cajamarca vs CD Los Chankas?

The model expects 2.97 goals (UTC Cajamarca 1.61 · CD Los Chankas 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs CD Los Chankas?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.