Football · Peru Liga 1 · 14/11, 22:00

Prediction: Deportivo Moquegua vs Atletico Grau

Team pages: Deportivo Moquegua · Atletico Grau

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.22Total

Deportivo Moquegua1.39

Atletico Grau0.83

1X2

49% 29% 22%

Deportivo Moquegua Draw Atletico Grau

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Moquegua 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLLD

Atletico Grau 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLDLDLLW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Moquegua 0–1 Atletico Grau (1 last)

Atletico Grau1-0Deportivo Moquegua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Moquegua 1414 · Atletico Grau 1479

	Deportivo Moquegua	Draw	Atletico Grau
Our model	49%	30%	21%
Market	50%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Grau (rating 1414 vs 1479).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Moquegua	Atletico Grau
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:04 +3’	1.83	3.30	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Moquegua 0–0–1 Atletico Grau

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Atletico Grau	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Moquegua

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	32	20	8	4	53	23	68
2	Universitario de Deportes	32	17	9	6	57	37	60
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	56	38	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	32	16	6	10	50	35	54
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	63	48	51
6	Cusco FC	33	16	3	14	46	47	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	54	46	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	48	49	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	49	48	49
10	CD Los Chankas	32	13	8	11	39	51	47
11	Sport Boys	32	12	9	11	37	35	41
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	48	59	41
13	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	32	41	37
14	Comerciantes Unidos	32	8	12	12	44	47	36
15	AD Tarma	33	7	11	15	36	48	31
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	46	65	29
17	Deportivo Moquegua	32	7	8	17	25	46	29
18	UTC Cajamarca	32	5	8	19	38	58	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Moquegua	Atletico Grau
CD Los Chankas	0-0 D	0-0 D
AD Tarma	0-2 L	1-1 D
Alianza Lima	0-1 L	1-3 L
Cienciano	0-2 L	0-3 L
Sporting Cristal	1-2 L	1-3 L
Cusco FC	0-2 L	3-0 W
Alianza Atletico	1-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Moquegua

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
28/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
25/10	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
18/10	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
08/10	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
20/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-4	0	7	L
13/09	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	10	7	L
06/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
30/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
22/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	1	5	W

Atletico Grau

WLWLDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
01/11	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
29/10	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-3	5	3	L
23/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	3	10	D
18/10	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
08/10	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
19/09	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-3	5	6	L
13/09	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
06/09	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-4	3	6	L
01/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	0	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Moquegua vs Atletico Grau?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Moquegua win (49%). Probabilities: Deportivo Moquegua 49%, draw 29%, Atletico Grau 22%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Moquegua vs Atletico Grau?

The model expects 2.22 goals (Deportivo Moquegua 1.39 · Atletico Grau 0.83), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Moquegua vs Atletico Grau?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.