Football · Peru Liga 1 · 31/07, 22:00
Prediction: CD Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.47Total
CD Los Chankas1.71
Comerciantes Unidos0.77
1X2
CD Los Chankas
Draw
Comerciantes Unidos
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
CD Los Chankas
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Comerciantes Unidos
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Los Chankas
3–2–1
Comerciantes Unidos
(6 last)
- Comerciantes Unidos1-1CD Los Chankas
- CD Los Chankas3-2Comerciantes Unidos
- Comerciantes Unidos1-1CD Los Chankas
- CD Los Chankas2-0Comerciantes Unidos
- Comerciantes Unidos3-2CD Los Chankas
- CD Los Chankas2-1Comerciantes Unidos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Los Chankas 1508 · Comerciantes Unidos 1448
| CD Los Chankas | Draw | Comerciantes Unidos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 26% | 15% |
| Market | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Los Chankas (rating 1508 vs 1448).
- H2H favours CD Los Chankas: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Los Chankas | Comerciantes Unidos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.5 | 1.1 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Los Chankas 3–2–1 Comerciantes Unidos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-1 HT 1-1 | CD Los Chankas |
| 01/08/25 Peru Liga 1 | CD Los Chankas | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Comerciantes Unidos |
| 22/02/25 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 1-1 HT 0-0 | CD Los Chankas |
| 20/07/24 Peru Liga 1 | CD Los Chankas | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Comerciantes Unidos |
| 05/02/24 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 3-2 HT 0-2 | CD Los Chankas |
| 23/08/23 Peru Liga 2 | CD Los Chankas | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Comerciantes Unidos |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 18 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 9 | 43 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 24 | 37 |
| 3 | Universitario de Deportes | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 35 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 34 |
| 5 | Cienciano | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 35 | 27 | 33 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 27 | 30 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 26 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 23 | 24 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 20 | 23 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 32 | 22 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 22 |
| 12 | AD Tarma | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 25 | 20 |
| 13 | Juan Pablo II College | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 42 | 20 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 19 |
| 15 | Deportivo Moquegua | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 19 |
| 16 | Sport Huancayo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 33 | 19 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 30 | 18 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 13 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Los Chankas | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Sport Boys | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Moquegua | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Los Chankas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Sport Huancayo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Santos FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Ayacucho FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 31/05 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/05 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 04/05 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
Comerciantes Unidos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 27/06 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 11/06 | Club Ada Jaen Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 25/05 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 11 | L |
| 25/04 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/04 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Los Chankas win (59%). Probabilities: CD Los Chankas 59%, draw 25%, Comerciantes Unidos 16%.
How many goals are expected in CD Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model expects 2.47 goals (CD Los Chankas 1.71 · Comerciantes Unidos 0.77), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Los Chankas vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.