Football · Peru Liga 1 · 15/08, 22:00
Prediction: CD Los Chankas vs FBC Melgar
Team pages: CD Los Chankas · FBC Melgar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
CD Los Chankas1.56
FBC Melgar1.56
1X2
CD Los Chankas
Draw
FBC Melgar
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CD Los Chankas
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
FBC Melgar
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Los Chankas
1–2–2
FBC Melgar
(5 last)
- FBC Melgar1-2CD Los Chankas
- FBC Melgar6-1CD Los Chankas
- CD Los Chankas1-1FBC Melgar
- FBC Melgar2-0CD Los Chankas
- CD Los Chankas2-2FBC Melgar
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Los Chankas 1525 · FBC Melgar 1521
| CD Los Chankas | Draw | FBC Melgar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FBC Melgar: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Los Chankas | FBC Melgar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.2 | 2.7 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Los Chankas 1–2–2 FBC Melgar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/26 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 1-2 HT 1-0 | CD Los Chankas |
| 21/09/25 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 6-1 HT 3-0 | CD Los Chankas |
| 27/04/25 Peru Liga 1 | CD Los Chankas | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FBC Melgar |
| 15/09/24 Peru Liga 1 | FBC Melgar | 2-0 HT 1-0 | CD Los Chankas |
| 06/04/24 Peru Liga 1 | CD Los Chankas | 2-2 HT 0-1 | FBC Melgar |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 38 | 13 | 48 |
| 2 | CD Los Chankas | 21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 27 | 41 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 37 | 28 | 36 |
| 4 | Universitario de Deportes | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 36 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 35 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 31 | 33 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 32 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 27 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 27 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 33 | 33 | 26 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 28 | 26 |
| 12 | Sport Huancayo | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 27 | 34 | 23 |
| 13 | AD Tarma | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 27 | 21 |
| 14 | Deportivo Moquegua | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 21 |
| 15 | Juan Pablo II College | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 44 | 21 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 22 | 20 |
| 17 | FC Cajamarca | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 34 | 18 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 34 | 15 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Los Chankas | FBC Melgar |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Huancayo | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Alianza Atletico | 1-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Deportivo Moquegua | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Los Chankas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 31/07 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
3-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/07 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Sport Huancayo Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Santos FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Ayacucho FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 31/05 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
FBC Melgar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 29/06 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 10 | D |
| 12/06 | Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Los Chankas vs FBC Melgar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Los Chankas win (37%). Probabilities: CD Los Chankas 37%, draw 27%, FBC Melgar 37%.
How many goals are expected in CD Los Chankas vs FBC Melgar?
The model expects 3.12 goals (CD Los Chankas 1.56 · FBC Melgar 1.56), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Los Chankas vs FBC Melgar?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.