Football · Peru Liga 1 · 08/10, 20:00

Prediction: Deportivo Moquegua vs Cienciano

Team pages: Deportivo Moquegua · Cienciano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Deportivo Moquegua1.17

Cienciano1.47

1X2

29% 28% 43%

Deportivo Moquegua Draw Cienciano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Moquegua 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDDLDWLLLL

Cienciano 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLLWLD

Head-to-head

Deportivo Moquegua 0–1 Cienciano (1 last)

Cienciano2-1Deportivo Moquegua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Moquegua 1431 · Cienciano 1485

	Deportivo Moquegua	Draw	Cienciano
Our model	29%	28%	43%
Market	30%	27%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cienciano (rating 1431 vs 1485).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Moquegua	Cienciano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	3.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.36 ★
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	2.25 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:37 +18’	2.90	3.30	2.25
04:37 +32’	3.10▲	3.40▲	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:30 +264’	3.53	3.45	1.98
08:34 +19’	3.36▼	3.39▼	2.06▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Moquegua 0–0–1 Cienciano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	2-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Moquegua

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	27	16	8	3	44	18	56
2	Universitario de Deportes	27	14	7	6	43	31	49
3	Deportivo Garcilaso	27	14	6	7	39	24	48
4	FBC Melgar	27	13	7	7	45	29	46
5	Cusco FC	27	14	3	10	40	38	45
6	CD Los Chankas	27	12	6	9	36	45	42
7	Cienciano	27	12	5	10	46	40	41
8	Alianza Atletico	27	11	7	9	40	35	40
9	Sporting Cristal	27	11	5	11	48	40	38
10	Sport Boys	27	10	8	9	29	26	38
11	Sport Huancayo	27	10	5	12	37	44	35
12	Juan Pablo II College	27	9	7	11	42	52	34
13	Atletico Grau	27	9	5	13	26	31	32
14	Comerciantes Unidos	27	7	9	11	35	38	30
15	FC Cajamarca	27	7	6	14	41	52	27
16	AD Tarma	27	6	7	14	29	42	25
17	Deportivo Moquegua	27	6	7	14	24	41	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	27	4	8	15	32	50	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Moquegua	Cienciano
Juan Pablo II College	0-4 L	0-2 L
Cusco FC	0-2 L	1-2 L
Alianza Atletico	1-4 L	0-1 L
Sport Boys	1-1 D	1-5 L
Deportivo Garcilaso	0-2 L	0-0 D
FBC Melgar	0-0 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Cienciano (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Moquegua

DDDLDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-4	0	7	L
13/09	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	10	7	L
06/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
30/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
22/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
16/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
09/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
02/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
26/07	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
18/07	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-2	5	5	D

Cienciano

LLWLDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
23/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
04/09	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	3-2	5-2	3	2	W
31/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
23/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-3	1-5	8	2	L
17/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
06/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
03/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
25/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
18/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Moquegua vs Cienciano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cienciano win (43%). Probabilities: Deportivo Moquegua 29%, draw 28%, Cienciano 43%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Moquegua vs Cienciano?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Deportivo Moquegua 1.17 · Cienciano 1.47), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Moquegua vs Cienciano?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.