Football · Peru Liga 1 · 23/10, 20:00

Prediction: UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar

Team pages: UTC Cajamarca · FBC Melgar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

UTC Cajamarca0.92

FBC Melgar1.82

1X2

18% 25% 57%

UTC Cajamarca Draw FBC Melgar

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

UTC Cajamarca 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

DLDLLLLLLL

FBC Melgar 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWWDDW

Head-to-head

UTC Cajamarca 0–1–5 FBC Melgar (6 last)

FBC Melgar2-0UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca1-2FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar3-0UTC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar1-0UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca2-6FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar1-1UTC Cajamarca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UTC Cajamarca 1399 · FBC Melgar 1552

	UTC Cajamarca	Draw	FBC Melgar
Our model	18%	25%	57%
Market	18%	25%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FBC Melgar (rating 1399 vs 1552).
H2H favours FBC Melgar: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UTC Cajamarca	FBC Melgar
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	3.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.8	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.25

X3.70

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:04 +4’	5.25	3.70	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UTC Cajamarca 0–1–5 FBC Melgar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	2-0 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca
19/07/25 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	1-2 HT 0-1	FBC Melgar
08/02/25 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	3-0 HT 1-0	UTC Cajamarca
23/10/24 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-0 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca
12/05/24 Peru Liga 1	UTC Cajamarca	2-6 HT 0-2	FBC Melgar
16/08/23 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-1 HT 0-0	UTC Cajamarca

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	29	18	8	3	49	20	62
2	FBC Melgar	29	14	8	7	51	33	50
3	Universitario de Deportes	28	14	8	6	45	33	50
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	29	14	6	9	41	29	48
5	CD Los Chankas	29	13	7	9	38	46	46
6	Cusco FC	29	14	3	12	42	42	45
7	Cienciano	28	13	5	10	48	40	44
8	Alianza Atletico	28	12	7	9	43	36	43
9	Sporting Cristal	28	12	5	11	49	40	41
10	Sport Huancayo	29	12	5	12	40	45	41
11	Juan Pablo II College	29	10	8	11	45	53	38
12	Sport Boys	29	10	8	11	30	31	34
13	Atletico Grau	29	9	6	14	27	34	33
14	Comerciantes Unidos	28	7	10	11	36	39	31
15	FC Cajamarca	28	7	7	14	41	52	26
16	AD Tarma	29	6	8	15	30	44	25
17	Deportivo Moquegua	28	6	7	15	24	43	25
18	UTC Cajamarca	28	4	8	16	32	51	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UTC Cajamarca	FBC Melgar
Universitario de Deportes	2-4 L	2-2 D
Alianza Lima	0-1 L	1-1 D
AD Tarma	1-1 D	3-0 W
Cusco FC	1-4 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Moquegua	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FBC Melgar (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UTC Cajamarca

DLDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
20/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	1	6	L
11/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	3	11	L
04/09	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-2	2-3	2	6	L
29/08	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	2-1	2-4	3	6	L
22/08	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
16/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
08/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
02/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-4	3	4	L
26/07	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

FBC Melgar

DLWDLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	6	4	W
11/10	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
12/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
07/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
01/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
15/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
09/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-4	10	8	L
02/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FBC Melgar win (57%). Probabilities: UTC Cajamarca 18%, draw 25%, FBC Melgar 57%.

How many goals are expected in UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?

The model expects 2.74 goals (UTC Cajamarca 0.92 · FBC Melgar 1.82), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.