Football · Peru Liga 1 · 23/10, 22:15
Prediction: Atletico Grau vs AD Tarma
Team pages: Atletico Grau · AD Tarma
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Atletico Grau1.66
AD Tarma0.86
1X2
Atletico Grau
Draw
AD Tarma
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Grau
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
AD Tarma
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Grau
2–1–3
AD Tarma
(6 last)
- AD Tarma1-0Atletico Grau
- Atletico Grau2-0AD Tarma
- AD Tarma4-3Atletico Grau
- AD Tarma1-2Atletico Grau
- Atletico Grau2-2AD Tarma
- AD Tarma1-0Atletico Grau
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Grau (rating 1493 vs 1429).
- H2H favours AD Tarma: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Grau | AD Tarma | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.8 | 2.5 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Grau 2–1–3 AD Tarma
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico Grau |
| 31/08/25 Peru Liga 1 | Atletico Grau | 2-0 HT 1-0 | AD Tarma |
| 15/02/25 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 4-3 HT 1-1 | Atletico Grau |
| 04/08/24 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Atletico Grau |
| 25/02/24 Peru Liga 1 | Atletico Grau | 2-2 HT 0-2 | AD Tarma |
| 23/07/23 Peru Liga 1 | AD Tarma | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico Grau |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 29 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 49 | 20 | 62 |
| 2 | FBC Melgar | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 51 | 33 | 50 |
| 3 | Universitario de Deportes | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 33 | 50 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 29 | 48 |
| 5 | CD Los Chankas | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 46 | 46 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 29 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 42 | 42 | 45 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 40 | 44 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 36 | 43 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 49 | 40 | 41 |
| 10 | Sport Huancayo | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 45 | 41 |
| 11 | Juan Pablo II College | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 45 | 53 | 38 |
| 12 | Sport Boys | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 30 | 31 | 34 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 34 | 33 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 39 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 52 | 26 |
| 16 | AD Tarma | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 44 | 25 |
| 17 | Deportivo Moquegua | 28 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 43 | 25 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 32 | 51 | 10 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Grau | AD Tarma |
|---|---|---|
| Alianza Lima | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| CD Los Chankas | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Alianza Atletico | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 2-4 L | 0-1 L |
| FBC Melgar | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| FC Cajamarca | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Juan Pablo II College | 0-0 D | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Grau (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Grau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 08/10 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/09 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/08 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
AD Tarma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 10/10 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 23/09 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 19/09 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/09 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-3 | 1-3 | 9 | 10 | L |
| 22/08 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-5 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 15/08 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 15 | 9 | D |
| 08/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Grau vs AD Tarma?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Grau win (55%). Probabilities: Atletico Grau 55%, draw 27%, AD Tarma 18%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Grau vs AD Tarma?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Atletico Grau 1.66 · AD Tarma 0.86), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Grau vs AD Tarma?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.