Football · Peru Liga 1 · 18/11, 21:00

Prediction: Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar

Team pages: Alianza Atletico · FBC Melgar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Alianza Atletico1.48

FBC Melgar1.76

1X2

31% 26% 43%

Alianza Atletico Draw FBC Melgar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Atletico 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLWWL

FBC Melgar 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWWDLW

Head-to-head

Alianza Atletico 1–1–4 FBC Melgar (6 last)

FBC Melgar3-1Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico0-0FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar2-1Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico3-1FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar1-0Alianza Atletico
FBC Melgar4-0Alianza Atletico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Atletico 1532 · FBC Melgar 1548

	Alianza Atletico	Draw	FBC Melgar
Our model	31%	25%	43%
Market	30%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FBC Melgar: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Atletico	FBC Melgar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.6	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.30

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	2.05 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:27 +19’	3.25	3.40	2.05
18:15 +19’	3.00▼	3.30▼	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Atletico 1–1–4 FBC Melgar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	3-1 HT 0-1	Alianza Atletico
01/08/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	0-0 HT 0-0	FBC Melgar
24/02/25 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	2-1 HT 0-1	Alianza Atletico
25/07/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	3-1 HT 1-0	FBC Melgar
10/02/24 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Atletico
15/09/23 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	4-0 HT 3-0	Alianza Atletico

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	33	20	9	4	54	24	69
2	Universitario de Deportes	33	17	10	6	59	39	61
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	56	38	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	33	16	7	10	50	35	55
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	63	48	51
6	Cusco FC	33	16	3	14	46	47	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	54	46	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	48	49	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	49	48	49
10	CD Los Chankas	33	13	9	11	40	52	48
11	Sport Boys	33	12	10	11	37	35	42
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	48	59	41
13	Comerciantes Unidos	33	8	13	12	44	47	37
14	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	32	41	37
15	AD Tarma	33	7	11	15	36	48	31
16	Deportivo Moquegua	33	7	9	17	27	48	30
17	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	46	65	29
18	UTC Cajamarca	33	5	9	19	38	58	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Atletico	FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College	1-0 W	2-1 W
Deportivo Garcilaso	3-2 W	4-2 W
Sport Huancayo	1-4 L	0-2 L
Universitario de Deportes	1-4 L	2-2 D
Sport Boys	3-1 W	1-1 D
Comerciantes Unidos	2-1 W	1-1 D
Atletico Grau	1-3 L	0-1 L
UTC Cajamarca	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FBC Melgar (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Atletico

WWLWWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
31/10	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
28/10	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	3-0	3-2	6	2	W
24/10	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-4	1-4	5	2	L
18/10	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-3	1-4	9	5	L
11/10	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	3-1	2	9	W
18/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	10	4	W
13/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
04/09	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	5	6	W
30/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-1	4	5	W

FBC Melgar

LWWDDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-1	2-1	6	6	W
02/11	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
30/10	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	6	8	D
23/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
18/10	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	6	4	W
11/10	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
12/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
07/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
01/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FBC Melgar win (43%). Probabilities: Alianza Atletico 31%, draw 26%, FBC Melgar 43%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Alianza Atletico 1.48 · FBC Melgar 1.76), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Atletico vs FBC Melgar?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.