Football · Croatia HNL · 12/09, 17:00

Prediction: NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb

Team pages: NK Osijek · Dinamo Zagreb

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

NK Osijek1.08

Dinamo Zagreb1.91

1X2

20% 24% 56%

NK Osijek Draw Dinamo Zagreb

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Osijek 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWLWL

Dinamo Zagreb 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWDW

Head-to-head

NK Osijek 1–5 Dinamo Zagreb (6 last)

Dinamo Zagreb7-0NK Osijek
NK Osijek0-3Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb2-1NK Osijek
NK Osijek0-2Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb2-0NK Osijek
Dinamo Zagreb0-1NK Osijek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Osijek 1507 · Dinamo Zagreb 1626

	NK Osijek	Draw	Dinamo Zagreb
Our model	20%	24%	56%
Market	20%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dinamo Zagreb (rating 1507 vs 1626).
H2H favours Dinamo Zagreb: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Osijek	Dinamo Zagreb
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	2.2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6	1.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X3.70

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.91

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.77
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.93 ★
2	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +4’	4.50	3.70	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:57 +68’	4.77	3.93	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Osijek 1–0–5 Dinamo Zagreb

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Croatia HNL	Dinamo Zagreb	7-0 HT 3-0	NK Osijek
25/01/26 Croatia HNL	NK Osijek	0-3 HT 0-2	Dinamo Zagreb
18/10/25 Croatia HNL	Dinamo Zagreb	2-1 HT 2-0	NK Osijek
02/08/25 Croatia HNL	NK Osijek	0-2 HT 0-0	Dinamo Zagreb
12/04/25 Croatia HNL	Dinamo Zagreb	2-0 HT 1-0	NK Osijek
26/02/25 Croatia Cup	Dinamo Zagreb	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Osijek

Standings · Croatia HNL

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hajduk Split	6	4	1	1	15	5	13
2	Dinamo Zagreb	5	4	1	0	12	3	13
3	NK Varazdin	6	4	1	1	11	5	13
4	NK Osijek	6	4	0	2	13	9	12
5	HNK Rijeka	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
6	Istra 1961	6	1	3	2	11	10	6
7	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	6	2	0	4	8	12	6
8	Slaven Belupo	6	2	0	4	5	13	6
9	NK Rudes	6	1	0	5	6	19	3
10	HNK Gorica	6	0	1	5	2	10	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Osijek	Dinamo Zagreb
Slaven Belupo	3-0 W	2-0 W
Hajduk Split	0-4 L	2-0 W
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	1-0 W	0-0 D
NK Rudes	6-1 W	4-0 W
HNK Gorica	2-0 W	1-0 W
Istra 1961	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: NK Osijek (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Osijek

LLLWWWWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	1-3	1-4	3	2	L
30/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
23/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	0-1	0-4	2	5	L
15/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
08/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	4-0	6-1	4	2	W
01/08	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	8	3	W
22/05	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-0	2-0	16	0	W
16/05	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	9	4	L
10/05	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	1	8	L
02/05	Vukovar 91 Croatia HNL	0-0	0-1	4	6	L

Dinamo Zagreb

WWWWDWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
29/08	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	1-2	2-2	8	4	D
22/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
14/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	2-0	4-0	12	4	W
31/07	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
23/05	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
17/05	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-1	4-1	1	1	W
09/05	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
02/05	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
26/04	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	2-1	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dinamo Zagreb win (56%). Probabilities: NK Osijek 20%, draw 24%, Dinamo Zagreb 56%.

How many goals are expected in NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb?

The model expects 2.99 goals (NK Osijek 1.08 · Dinamo Zagreb 1.91), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.