Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 03/08, 18:30

Prediction: Panevezys vs FK Dziugas Telsiai

Team pages: Panevezys · FK Dziugas Telsiai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Panevezys1.2

FK Dziugas Telsiai1.3

1X2

34% 28% 38%

Panevezys Draw FK Dziugas Telsiai

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Panevezys 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLDLD

FK Dziugas Telsiai 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLDDWL

Head-to-head

Panevezys 1–2–3 FK Dziugas Telsiai (6 last)

FK Dziugas Telsiai4-0Panevezys
Panevezys0-1FK Dziugas Telsiai
Panevezys1-1FK Dziugas Telsiai
FK Dziugas Telsiai1-4Panevezys
Panevezys0-1FK Dziugas Telsiai
FK Dziugas Telsiai1-1Panevezys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Panevezys 1455 · FK Dziugas Telsiai 1505

	Panevezys	Draw	FK Dziugas Telsiai
Our model	33%	29%	38%
Market	34%	27%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Dziugas Telsiai (rating 1455 vs 1505).
H2H favours FK Dziugas Telsiai: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Panevezys	FK Dziugas Telsiai
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	1.3 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.30

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:12 +12’	2.63	3.30	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Panevezys 1–2–3 FK Dziugas Telsiai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Dziugas Telsiai	4-0 HT 2-0	Panevezys
05/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Dziugas Telsiai
10/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Panevezys	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Dziugas Telsiai
26/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Dziugas Telsiai	1-4 HT 0-3	Panevezys
08/08/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Dziugas Telsiai
13/06/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Dziugas Telsiai	1-1 HT 0-1	Panevezys

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Kauno Zalgiris	20	9	7	4	38	15	34
2	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	21	10	4	7	33	24	34
3	Suduva Marijampole	20	8	9	3	26	17	33
4	FK Dziugas Telsiai	21	9	6	6	29	23	33
5	FK Transinvest	21	9	5	7	30	28	32
6	Banga Gargzdai	20	8	6	6	22	15	30
7	Hegelmann Litauen	22	4	10	8	25	37	22
8	Panevezys	20	5	4	11	18	37	19
9	FK Siauliai	21	2	7	12	18	43	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Panevezys	FK Dziugas Telsiai
FK Kauno Zalgiris	0-3 L	0-0 D
Hegelmann Litauen	1-1 D	1-1 D
Suduva Marijampole	1-2 L	1-2 L
FK Siauliai	3-2 W	1-2 L
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	0-3 L	0-0 D
FK Transinvest	1-2 L	0-1 L
Banga Gargzdai	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Dziugas Telsiai (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Panevezys

WLLLWLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Tobol Kostanay UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
11/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
04/07	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
29/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
23/06	FK Minija Lithuania Cup	0-1	1-2	6	10	L
20/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
16/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
12/06	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-2	3	4	L
30/05	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-4	2	8	L
24/05	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W

FK Dziugas Telsiai

WWWDLLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/07	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
03/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
28/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
24/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania Cup	1-1	1-2	7	7	L
21/06	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
17/06	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	4-3	3	1	W
30/05	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	4-0	3	8	W
24/05	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-2	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Panevezys vs FK Dziugas Telsiai?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Dziugas Telsiai win (38%). Probabilities: Panevezys 34%, draw 28%, FK Dziugas Telsiai 38%.

How many goals are expected in Panevezys vs FK Dziugas Telsiai?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Panevezys 1.2 · FK Dziugas Telsiai 1.3), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Panevezys vs FK Dziugas Telsiai?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.