Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 14/09, 17:45

Prediction: Banga Gargzdai vs FK Transinvest

Team pages: Banga Gargzdai · FK Transinvest

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Banga Gargzdai1.32

FK Transinvest1.27

1X2

37% 28% 35%

Banga Gargzdai Draw FK Transinvest

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Banga Gargzdai 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWDDL

FK Transinvest 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWLDWL

Head-to-head

Banga Gargzdai 3–2–1 FK Transinvest (6 last)

FK Transinvest1-3Banga Gargzdai
Banga Gargzdai2-2FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest1-0Banga Gargzdai
Banga Gargzdai1-1FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest0-1Banga Gargzdai
Banga Gargzdai2-0FK Transinvest

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Banga Gargzdai 1507 · FK Transinvest 1502

	Banga Gargzdai	Draw	FK Transinvest
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Banga Gargzdai: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Banga Gargzdai	FK Transinvest
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.38▼	Pinn 2.53
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.40 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.74 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:39 +4’	2.50	3.40	2.40
04:46 +4’	2.38▼	3.40	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:13 +5’	2.49	3.09	2.69
09:25 +59’	2.53▲	3.15▲	2.74▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Banga Gargzdai 3–2–1 FK Transinvest

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	1-3 HT 1-1	Banga Gargzdai
10/05/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	2-2 HT 1-2	FK Transinvest
11/03/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	1-0 HT 0-0	Banga Gargzdai
02/11/24 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Transinvest
10/08/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	0-1 HT 0-0	Banga Gargzdai
15/06/24 Lithuania A Lyga	Banga Gargzdai	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Transinvest

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suduva Marijampole	26	13	9	4	38	24	48
2	FK Kauno Zalgiris	25	12	9	4	51	17	45
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	25	12	4	9	38	29	40
4	FK Transinvest	26	11	6	9	37	34	39
5	FK Dziugas Telsiai	27	10	8	9	36	38	38
6	Banga Gargzdai	26	10	8	8	29	25	38
7	Panevezys	27	9	5	13	29	42	32
8	Hegelmann Litauen	27	4	12	11	30	47	24
9	FK Siauliai	27	3	7	17	24	56	16

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Banga Gargzdai	FK Transinvest
Panevezys	0-3 L	0-2 L
FK Kauno Zalgiris	0-0 D	1-1 D
Hegelmann Litauen	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	3-2 W	1-3 L
Suduva Marijampole	0-3 L	1-2 L
FK Siauliai	3-1 W	3-0 W
FK Dziugas Telsiai	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Transinvest (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Banga Gargzdai

WWWLWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
30/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
23/08	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
16/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-2	4	5	W
09/08	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
03/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	2-1	3-1	4	8	W
19/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
12/07	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-1	3	6	W
28/06	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
20/06	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	0	2	W

FK Transinvest

WDLLWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
24/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
16/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
10/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/08	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
26/07	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-2	1-3	10	3	L
12/07	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-3	9	6	L
06/07	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
29/06	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	3-1	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Banga Gargzdai vs FK Transinvest?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Banga Gargzdai win (37%). Probabilities: Banga Gargzdai 37%, draw 28%, FK Transinvest 35%.

How many goals are expected in Banga Gargzdai vs FK Transinvest?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Banga Gargzdai 1.32 · FK Transinvest 1.27), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Banga Gargzdai vs FK Transinvest?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.