Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 08/11, 13:15

Prediction: FK Transinvest vs FK Kauno Zalgiris

Team pages: FK Transinvest · FK Kauno Zalgiris

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

FK Transinvest1.41

FK Kauno Zalgiris1.36

1X2

38% 27% 36%

FK Transinvest Draw FK Kauno Zalgiris

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Transinvest 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWWDWL

FK Kauno Zalgiris 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLWWDW

Head-to-head

FK Transinvest 2–1–3 FK Kauno Zalgiris (6 last)

FK Kauno Zalgiris1-1FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest1-2FK Kauno Zalgiris
FK Kauno Zalgiris1-2FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest0-3FK Kauno Zalgiris
FK Kauno Zalgiris2-0FK Transinvest
FK Transinvest3-2FK Kauno Zalgiris

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Transinvest 1527 · FK Kauno Zalgiris 1546

	FK Transinvest	Draw	FK Kauno Zalgiris
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Kauno Zalgiris: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Transinvest	FK Kauno Zalgiris
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	2.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.6	3.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.50

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 2.35▼	Bet365 2.35
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.85 ★
2	1.85 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.55

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +3’	3.40	3.60	1.85
13:18 +6’	2.45▼	3.50▼	2.40▲
14:25 +5’	2.15▼	3.50	2.75▲
15:29 +11’	2.35▲	3.50	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:13 +1’	3.44	3.81	1.85
10:10 +8’	3.07▼	3.90▲	2.05▲
11:17 +6’	2.67▼	3.78▼	2.28▲
13:22 +1’	2.37▼	3.88▲	2.51▲
14:06 +24’	2.12▼	4.19▲	2.72▲
15:15 +25’	2.30▲	3.97▼	2.56▼
17:23 +15’	2.32▲	3.84▼	2.58▲
22:44 +17’	2.34▲	3.85▲	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Transinvest 2–1–3 FK Kauno Zalgiris

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Transinvest
20/06/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	1-2 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris
18/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Transinvest
31/08/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	0-3 HT 0-1	FK Kauno Zalgiris
26/06/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Transinvest
02/05/24 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Transinvest	3-2 HT 0-2	FK Kauno Zalgiris

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Kauno Zalgiris	31	16	10	5	61	21	58
2	Suduva Marijampole	31	14	11	6	41	31	53
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	31	15	6	10	49	35	51
4	FK Transinvest	31	14	7	10	48	39	49
5	Banga Gargzdai	31	11	9	11	34	32	42
6	FK Dziugas Telsiai	31	11	9	11	42	46	42
7	Panevezys	31	11	5	15	33	46	38
8	Hegelmann Litauen	32	4	14	14	33	58	26
9	FK Siauliai	31	4	9	18	26	59	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Transinvest	FK Kauno Zalgiris
Panevezys	0-1 L	1-0 W
Hegelmann Litauen	2-0 W	4-1 W
FK Dziugas Telsiai	3-3 D	5-0 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	3-0 W	0-0 D
Banga Gargzdai	3-1 W	0-0 D
Suduva Marijampole	1-2 L	1-0 W
FK Siauliai	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Transinvest

WLDWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
24/10	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
17/10	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-3	1	2	D
19/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
14/09	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-1	2	6	W
06/09	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-2	4	2	L
24/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
16/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
10/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
02/08	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	3	W

FK Kauno Zalgiris

DDWWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	2-1	4-1	4	5	W
26/10	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
19/10	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
20/09	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	2-0	13	5	W
16/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	2-2	2-3	7	4	L
13/09	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
09/09	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	5-1	6	1	W
06/09	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	5-0	4	4	W
30/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
16/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-1	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Transinvest vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Transinvest win (38%). Probabilities: FK Transinvest 38%, draw 27%, FK Kauno Zalgiris 36%.

How many goals are expected in FK Transinvest vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?

The model expects 2.77 goals (FK Transinvest 1.41 · FK Kauno Zalgiris 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Transinvest vs FK Kauno Zalgiris?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.