Football · Lithuania A Lyga · 08/11, 13:15

Prediction: Panevezys vs FK Siauliai

Team pages: Panevezys · FK Siauliai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Panevezys1.71

FK Siauliai1.03

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Panevezys Draw FK Siauliai

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Panevezys 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLWLW

FK Siauliai 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLDW

Head-to-head

Panevezys 2–1–3 FK Siauliai (6 last)

FK Siauliai1-0Panevezys
Panevezys3-2FK Siauliai
FK Siauliai3-1Panevezys
FK Siauliai3-3Panevezys
Panevezys2-0FK Siauliai
FK Siauliai2-1Panevezys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Panevezys 1548 · FK Siauliai 1435

	Panevezys	Draw	FK Siauliai
Our model	52%	26%	22%
Market	54%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Panevezys (rating 1548 vs 1435).
H2H favours FK Siauliai: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Panevezys	FK Siauliai
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.80

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.67▲	Pinn 1.74
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.86
2	4.00 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.24 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +3’	1.65	3.80	4.00
02:16 +10’	1.67▲	3.80	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:10 +8’	1.82	3.77	3.91
11:19 +4’	1.75▼	3.82▲	4.17▲
12:18 +12’	1.73▼	3.88▲	4.23▲
13:22 +1’	1.74▲	3.83▼	4.23
16:06 +23’	1.70▼	3.89▲	4.41▲
17:23 +15’	1.74▲	3.83▼	4.24▼
15:39 +47’	1.74▼	3.86▲	4.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Panevezys 2–1–3 FK Siauliai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	1-0 HT 1-0	Panevezys
20/06/26 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	3-2 HT 2-1	FK Siauliai
18/04/26 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	3-1 HT 0-1	Panevezys
05/10/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	3-3 HT 1-1	Panevezys
20/07/25 Lithuania A Lyga	Panevezys	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Siauliai
01/06/25 Lithuania A Lyga	FK Siauliai	2-1 HT 0-0	Panevezys

Standings · Lithuania A Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Kauno Zalgiris	31	16	10	5	61	21	58
2	Suduva Marijampole	31	14	11	6	41	31	53
3	FK Zalgiris Vilnius	31	15	6	10	49	35	51
4	FK Transinvest	31	14	7	10	48	39	49
5	Banga Gargzdai	31	11	9	11	34	32	42
6	FK Dziugas Telsiai	31	11	9	11	42	46	42
7	Panevezys	31	11	5	15	33	46	38
8	Hegelmann Litauen	32	4	14	14	33	58	26
9	FK Siauliai	31	4	9	18	26	59	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Panevezys	FK Siauliai
FK Transinvest	1-0 W	0-3 L
FK Dziugas Telsiai	1-2 L	2-1 W
Banga Gargzdai	2-1 W	0-0 D
FK Kauno Zalgiris	0-1 L	0-2 L
Hegelmann Litauen	3-1 W	0-0 D
FK Zalgiris Vilnius	2-0 W	0-1 L
Suduva Marijampole	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Panevezys (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Panevezys

WLLWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
25/10	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
17/10	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
13/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
07/09	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-1	5	0	W
03/09	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	3-0	4	1	W
30/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
23/08	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
17/08	FK Siauliai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
10/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W

FK Siauliai

LLWLLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
25/10	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
20/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
13/09	Hegelmann Litauen Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
06/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius Lithuania A Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
30/08	Suduva Marijampole Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
24/08	FK Transinvest Lithuania A Lyga	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
17/08	Panevezys Lithuania A Lyga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
09/08	FK Dziugas Telsiai Lithuania A Lyga	1-3	3-4	7	6	L
03/08	Banga Gargzdai Lithuania A Lyga	1-2	1-3	9	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Panevezys vs FK Siauliai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Panevezys win (53%). Probabilities: Panevezys 53%, draw 25%, FK Siauliai 22%.

How many goals are expected in Panevezys vs FK Siauliai?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Panevezys 1.71 · FK Siauliai 1.03), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Panevezys vs FK Siauliai?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.