Football · Sweden Allsvenskan · 03/09, 19:00

Prediction: Mjällby AIF vs Djurgarden

Team pages: Mjällby AIF · Djurgarden

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Mjällby AIF1.23

Djurgarden1.66

1X2

27% 26% 47%

Mjällby AIF Draw Djurgarden

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Mjällby AIF 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDDLDLLW

Djurgarden 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWLLW

Head-to-head

Mjällby AIF 2–2–2 Djurgarden (6 last)

Mjällby AIF1-1Djurgarden
Djurgarden1-3Mjällby AIF
Djurgarden1-1Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF1-3Djurgarden
Djurgarden0-1Mjällby AIF
Mjällby AIF0-1Djurgarden

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mjällby AIF 1455 · Djurgarden 1529

	Mjällby AIF	Draw	Djurgarden
Our model	27%	26%	46%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Djurgarden (rating 1455 vs 1529).
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mjällby AIF	Djurgarden
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	3.3 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.60

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:46 +28’	3.30	3.60	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mjällby AIF 2–2–2 Djurgarden

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	1-1 HT 0-1	Djurgarden
15/05/25 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	1-3 HT 1-1	Mjällby AIF
15/09/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Djurgarden	1-1 HT 1-1	Mjällby AIF
25/05/24 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	1-3 HT 0-2	Djurgarden
06/02/24 Club Friendly List	Djurgarden	0-1 HT 0-0	Mjällby AIF
30/07/23 Sweden Allsvenskan	Mjällby AIF	0-1 HT 0-1	Djurgarden

Standings · Sweden Allsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sirius	18	13	3	2	47	26	42
2	Hammarby	19	11	3	5	44	18	36
3	Elfsborg	19	8	7	4	27	19	31
4	BK Hacken	19	8	7	4	33	29	31
5	AIK	18	9	4	5	28	27	31
6	Djurgarden	17	9	2	6	37	19	29
7	Vasteras SK	19	8	5	6	28	33	29
8	Malmo FF	18	8	2	8	32	30	26
9	Brommapojkarna	18	6	6	6	27	27	24
10	GAIS	18	6	5	7	21	18	23
11	IFK Goteborg	19	6	5	8	24	39	23
12	Mjällby AIF	16	5	5	6	24	23	20
13	Kalmar FF	19	5	4	10	21	29	19
14	Degerfors	19	4	4	11	17	31	16
15	Orgryte IS	19	3	5	11	22	42	14
16	Halmstad	19	2	5	12	13	35	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mjällby AIF	Djurgarden
Sirius	4-3 W	2-3 L
Vasteras SK	0-0 D	0-1 L
AIK	1-2 L	1-3 L
BK Hacken	0-1 L	4-2 W
Degerfors	4-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mjällby AIF (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mjällby AIF

WLDDDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	4-3	7	5	W
08/08	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Kalmar FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
17/07	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
11/07	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
03/07	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	4-4	3	1	D
25/05	IFK Goteborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	1-1	3	9	D
21/05	Elfsborg Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
17/05	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
09/05	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	4-1	5	3	W

Djurgarden

LLWWDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Malmo FF Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
16/08	AIK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-3	1-3	5	6	L
10/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
03/08	Vasteras SK Sweden Allsvenskan	3-0	6-0	5	3	W
25/07	Degerfors Sweden Allsvenskan	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
20/07	Orgryte IS Sweden Allsvenskan	0-0	0-0	13	4	D
13/07	Halmstad Sweden Allsvenskan	2-0	3-0	10	1	W
06/07	BK Hacken Sweden Allsvenskan	2-1	4-2	8	4	W
22/05	Brommapojkarna Sweden Allsvenskan	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
18/05	Sirius Sweden Allsvenskan	1-2	2-3	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mjällby AIF vs Djurgarden?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Djurgarden win (47%). Probabilities: Mjällby AIF 27%, draw 26%, Djurgarden 47%.

How many goals are expected in Mjällby AIF vs Djurgarden?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Mjällby AIF 1.23 · Djurgarden 1.66), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Mjällby AIF vs Djurgarden?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.